lt cap,

ALU/NOK starts to feel a fair amount like the INFN story that unfolded - analysts who left ALU for dead when they were facing possible bankruptcy are coming back for another look - some based on the pending deal, some based on performance and outlook. But it keeps getting analyst upgrades, and significant upward jumps (as per the CC) on good news. It may mean that we won't see anything below high $3's again, as the upward momentum gathers more steam. Drat! Yes, I know it's hard to grip about profitable moves on a stock that is my largest position, but somehow I can manage it :-)

It does, though, really present a dilemma - If I really have faith in the above thesis, now is the time to buy - even tho all my shares were accumulated lower. OTOH, there could be some downward surprise (micro or macro - more likely the latter I think) that could pull the stock down to better prices. Haven't had the guts to pull the trigger again here yet. But if I think about it this way, it may get a lot easier to wade in: Obvious that if it continues on an upward track that shares bought here will be a good idea. If one buys shares here,  and there's a serious downward price event, yeah, buy more there (depending on what's depressing it), and treat the shares bought here as a long-term proposition, given that your timeline really extends out even as far as 3 1/2 years. On INFN, how many times did my holdings turn green/red/green/red over time before it flew? Enough to think I was watching a lit Cristmas tree on my computer screen.

Probably not worth this mention, as I've really said the same about ALU before in terms of the use of faith as part of the strategy. And no one knows what the future holds. The press is way behind on a number of problems - saw an interview with Ted Koppel. He's just written a book about the near-certainty of a cyber take-down of the power grid system. His advice is for everyone to stock a 6 month supply of food and water. (He overlooked an obvious mistake - and a shotgun.) What's irritating is that this is not news - that danger has been known for a long time, and in the end he's only pointing to the fact that there is no govt. plan on how to prepare for such a near-certain event. Yeah, might sound a bit looney or Cassandra-like, but if I was a Jihadist against the great Satan of America, I'd be working on code to make it so.

Jamok,

The NOK-ALU combo is getting a lot of attention, it is indeed beginning to feel a bit like INFN.  I continue to firmly believe that the stock has a lot of upside from here, as you know I expect NOK to reach $14, I do not think this is too optimistic.  

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is saying that Suri has sandbagged the possible synergy savings/cost reductions, they believe it could be twice what was stated, or $1,8B not $900M.  If they are anywhere close to being correct, I would expect Suri to keep dribbling better than expected synergy cost reductions quarter after quarter, boosting the stock along the way.    

On the product sales side, I would say with a lot of confidence that NOK will eat Ericson's lunch.  My reasoning: Ericson had both NOK and ALU on the ropes for the past several years, Ericson never went for the kill.  NOK was collapsing because their handset division was bleeding them dry, had it not been for Microsoft's bone headed decision to pay an arm and a leg ($6B or $8B, I forget) for the handset division NOK would still be a walking dead company.  ALU was nearly bankrupt for years, heck! Since 2006!!

Ericson's management is not that good, IMO.  Suri is a far more capable guy; he runs a tight ship.

Just as a clarification, back when Nokia was dealing with plumeting sales of its handsets, Rajeev Suri was the Head of what was then called Nokia-Siemens Networks, a joint venture between iemens and Nokia.  He became the Nokia CEO after Nokia bought the Siemens part.  He is credited with ahndling the merger and running the division well.

He is also credited with selling the handset division to Microsoft.  Even though I was not happy that ALU accepted what I consider a low ball offer, I giive Rajeev Suri a lot of credit for getting a tremendous deal, one which fixes NOK's over dependence on wireless, i.e. mostly a one trick pony.