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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

10/12/15 at 5:18 PM CDT

 

 

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2

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Sentiment:

Neutral

INFN and sector

This is probably not a useful observation. But INFN's usual crazy beta has become seemingly crazier - ranging between $18.35 (close today), and in the upper $19's since late last week. Maybe it's the issue lt cap named - with the Transmode purchase, they're entering into a more competitive space and, just as with their main business, it'll take some time before income overtakes expenses - as well as maybe 'wait and see' how what they're offering stacks up against competition. Or maybe because it's Columbus day. But the pattern that's been holding for a while now seems to be that the sector (as represented by CIEN and INFN at least) have been on a downward trajectory, regardless of the main market action. ALU seems to be on a slow but steady upward track. I can think of scenarios that account for this - (e.g., with CIEN, they got a 'pass' from analysts when they said the last Q was 'light' because of ATT capex that would show up in the last Q - maybe there's doubt whether they'll clear the bar that they set, maybe not.)

And altho we're talking of a timeline of months (not that significant) it still has me wondering how to make sense of CIEN being a $25.XX at the CC and now a $21.XX stock, and it's been lower than that. Yes, there are 'lumps' to secular growth and a period of a year or more might be a better 'trajectory' indicator. I've been adding some (500 INFN today @ $18.58) as I think if one is patient this kind of buy will be a good bet. And I am patient. Just a bit puzzled. But if I wait a while, I won't be puzzled :-)

 

 

 

 

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