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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

09/02/15 at 12:43 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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CIEN earnings

CIEN is set to report Thursday before the opening bell. As usual, there are some option plays that seem outzied, esp. given what seems like a fair number of shares shorted. At a share price of $22.20, the Friday Sept. 4th 22.50's yield about 3.5%, if ITM, if my math isn't faulty.

I still can't cut and paste, as per usual - the site 'Investor Place' has an article on CIEN's pre-earnings prospects that may be useful. Not sure whether to make a bet on earnings or not - I already have sold 9/11 23.50 calls, but have a fair amount of dry powder.

Needham expects CIEN to beat estimates.  

Telecom Networking equipment makers are all in a strong secular period, the IoT is for real and it will continue to reshape the industry.  Traditional Broadcast TV will all go over the top and streaming will be the norm, this alone could triple or quadruple traffic on the internet over current levels.  As I have noted for years, all the excess of the dot com bubble has been rung out, lots of consolidation and others have gone under.  The field of survivors is now balanced with the service providers.  Product prices should continue to firm up, the low bidding wars to win contracts should be the exception rather than the norm.  The key is to stay with the Equipment makers, avoid the component makers.

I like pretty much all of them, but believe that CIEN and JNPR look good.  INFN is in a sweet spot, but feel is now fully valued.  CSCO could surprise as it reinvents itself, but it faces challenges with NFV and SDN, how it rises to these challenges could determine if it will retain its large router and switching market share.

BTW, on a somewhat related note, I see that Comcast will start enforcing bandwidth consumption limits.  Comcast will offer an unlimited data plan for an extra $30, or will charge $10 for every extra 50 GB.  Never slow to stem the tide f cut cutters, Comcast is ready to pull levers to keep the gusher of money coming in.

 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

09/03/15 at 5:39 AM CDT

BTW, on the Comcast news.  The baseline consumption per customer is 300GB, therefore a charge would be levied once a customer exceeds that.  Clearly, Comcast expects that most TV broadcasting will go over the top and are making preparations for that eventuality.

I believe that I now consume about $220GB per month on average, so it is quite likely that when all TV is over the top, I would be consuming far more than I now consume.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

09/03/15 at 7:18 AM CDT

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