CIEN earnings
CIEN is set to report Thursday before the opening bell. As
usual, there are some option plays that seem outzied, esp. given
what seems like a fair number of shares shorted. At a share price
of $22.20, the Friday Sept. 4th 22.50's yield about 3.5%, if ITM,
if my math isn't faulty.
I still can't cut and paste, as per usual - the site 'Investor
Place' has an article on CIEN's pre-earnings prospects that may be
useful. Not sure whether to make a bet on earnings or not - I
already have sold 9/11 23.50 calls, but have a fair amount of dry
powder.
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Needham expects CIEN to beat estimates.
Telecom Networking equipment makers are all in a strong secular
period, the IoT is for real and it will continue to reshape the
industry. Traditional Broadcast TV will all go over the top
and streaming will be the norm, this alone could triple or
quadruple traffic on the internet over current levels. As I
have noted for years, all the excess of the dot com bubble has been
rung out, lots of consolidation and others have gone under.
The field of survivors is now balanced with the service
providers. Product prices should continue to firm up, the low
bidding wars to win contracts should be the exception rather than
the norm. The key is to stay with the Equipment makers, avoid
the component makers.
I like pretty much all of them, but believe that CIEN and JNPR
look good. INFN is in a sweet spot, but feel is now fully
valued. CSCO could surprise as it reinvents itself, but it
faces challenges with NFV and SDN, how it rises to these challenges
could determine if it will retain its large router and switching
market share.
BTW, on a somewhat related note, I see that Comcast will start
enforcing bandwidth consumption limits. Comcast will offer an
unlimited data plan for an extra $30, or will charge $10 for every
extra 50 GB. Never slow to stem the tide f cut cutters,
Comcast is ready to pull levers to keep the gusher of money coming
in.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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09/03/15 at 5:39 AM CDT
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BTW, on the Comcast news. The baseline consumption per
customer is 300GB, therefore a charge would be levied once a
customer exceeds that. Clearly, Comcast expects that most TV
broadcasting will go over the top and are making preparations for
that eventuality.
I believe that I now consume about $220GB per month on average,
so it is quite likely that when all TV is over the top, I would be
consuming far more than I now consume.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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09/03/15 at 7:18 AM CDT
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