Having issues replying to your PM, so I will do it publicly, I
hope you do not mind, if so my appologies.
Jamok,
I have held off buying more ALU shares because I have been
getting the feeling that better prices will be had, that of course
is purely a gut feeling given the volume and declines in the
overall market feels as if it will go lower than current levels
over the next 2 to 3 months, not because I have changed my mind
about the ALU investment. Right now, all stocks are like
boats on a very turbulent sea. Thie decline is proving to be very
broadbase, even the leadership stocks (which I think of as teflon
stocks) are beginning to feel the heavy pressure of this sell off.
Their teflon coating is peeling off, even if
momentarily.
That said, my timing is often quite wrong, but I since I
now have a sizeable position, I want to get the best price
possible. My current thinking is to add again in the low 3s,
should it get there.
Now, going back to the overall market tone. I
believe that a bounce is near, the market is in very oversold
territory, but I am of the opinion that any bounce from these
levels is likely to be just a head fake, a sucker rally if you
will.
The Dow Theory is flashing a red flag, it is suggesting
that the markets could actually go into a at least a brief bear
market, if so, the Dow could fall an additional 10%. I am
sure that is just a probability as nothing guarantees any
particular outcome. But I have learned to be cautious when
the masses sentiment switches. All of these problems have
been around and were known, but people just needed a scare to
switch their complacent opinions.
Now, I still firmly believe that ALU at current prices is a
steal, in three to four years, these prices will look
ridiculous. In my case, just to reiterate, I want the last
shares to add to my already large position to count as much as
possible.