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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

08/21/15 at 2:23 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 6

RPLY: 1

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - ALU etc

Bought another 1500 shares of ALU @ $3.27. On the one hand, it shows no signs of bottoming, and it's anybody's guess how long this market bloodbath lasts - probably way overdue. On the other hand, what matters most is where ALU is in 2-3 years. If the global economy collapses, then only beans and bourbon (and a shotgun to defend it) has value, as I've said. If life goes on, the shares bought now might look like a very good idea in retrospect.

Movement in the sector is, as usual, nonsensical - ALU and INFN down, CIEN up  - on no news I can find.  Somebody likes it, for some reason I will never know.

Amazon continues to work on ever shrinking delivery times. In the future, perhaps they'll offer subscription deliery of the following  day's newspaper, and I can read the financial section.

Having issues replying to your PM, so I will do it publicly, I hope you do not mind, if so my appologies.

 

Jamok,

 

I have held off buying more ALU shares because I have been getting the feeling that better prices will be had, that of course is purely a gut feeling given the volume and declines in the overall market feels as if it will go lower than current levels over the next 2 to 3 months, not because I have changed my mind about the ALU investment.  Right now, all stocks are like boats on a very turbulent sea. Thie decline is proving to be very broadbase, even the leadership stocks (which I think of as teflon stocks) are beginning to feel the heavy pressure of this sell off.  Their teflon coating is peeling off, even if momentarily.

That said, my timing is often quite wrong, but I since I now have a sizeable position, I want to get the best price possible.  My current thinking is to add again in the low 3s, should it get there.

Now, going back to the overall market tone.  I believe that a bounce is near, the market is in very oversold territory, but I am of the opinion that any bounce from these levels is likely to be just a head fake, a sucker rally if you will.

The Dow Theory is flashing a red flag, it is suggesting that the markets could actually go into a at least a brief bear market, if so, the Dow could fall an additional 10%.  I am sure that is just a probability as nothing guarantees any particular outcome.  But I have learned to be cautious when the masses sentiment switches.  All of these problems have been around and were known, but people just needed a scare to switch their complacent opinions.

Now, I still firmly believe that ALU at current prices is a steal, in three to four years, these prices will look ridiculous.  In my case, just to reiterate, I want the last shares to add to my already large position to count as much as possible.


Agr :1

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RECS:0

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

08/22/15 at 6:31 AM CDT

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