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Rap Sheet

Author:

breinejm

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Date:

07/30/15 at 5:26 PM CDT

 

 

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ALU-NOK

Thought this was a decent overview of ALU-NOK post earnings.

from:  bloomberg.com/ne... 

Nokia, Alcatel Increase Profit Margins by Adam Ewing July 30, 2015 — 7:29 AM EDT  

Nokia Oyj and Alcatel-Lucent SA’s improvements in second-quarter profitability are putting pressure on market leader Ericsson AB to focus on savings and higher-margin businesses.

Shares of Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent soared after both companies posted higher gross margins, a key measure of financial health for wireless-network manufacturers. The two suppliers now both surpass Ericsson based on that metric -- months before Nokia completes its 15.6 billion-euro ($17 billion) takeover of Alcatel-Lucent.

The rivals’ progress shows Ericsson Chief Executive Officer Hans Vestberg has his work cut out to help the Swedish company catch up. Vendors need to be consistently profitable to ensure they have the means for product development and marketing as they compete for contracts reaching billions of dollars from the likes of AT&T Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc.

“The merger is clearly building on very strong basis,” said Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. in London. Ericsson will “need to put their house in order -- more focus and more efficiency.”

Nokia’s second-quarter gross margin, or sales minus the cost of goods sold, expanded to 46.7 percent as the Finnish company contained expenditures and sold more lucrative software products. Alcatel-Lucent’s margin increased to 34.8 percent. Ericsson reported a margin of 33.2 percent for the period, weighed down by restructuring expenses.

Savings Sought

Ericsson is trying to balance the quest for additional contracts with the need to boost profitability. The company is cutting about 2,100 positions in Sweden as part of a plan to save 9 billion kronor ($1 billion). Savings from the plan will begin to help earnings later this year, Vestberg has said.

An Ericsson representative declined to comment on its or rivals’ margins, saying the company focuses on its strategy.

Amid sputtering network-gear demand from wireless carriers and competition from Ericsson and Huawei Technologies Co., Nokia agreed in April to acquire Alcatel-Lucent, a deal that’s set to double revenue and give Nokia the scale to topple its two main rivals. The combination will bring savings of 900 million euros a year, Nokia projects.

“Our disciplined operating model puts us in a strong position to deliver in a competitive market, and we plan to maintain that model after we close our transaction with Alcatel-Lucent,” Nokia Chief Executive Officer Rajeev Suri said in an e-mailed response to questions.

Past Failures

Shares of Nokia rose as much as 9.6 percent, the biggest gain in a year, and added 7.2 percent to 6.41 euros at 2:25 p.m. in Helsinki. The stock has more than doubled since Nokia agreed to sell its struggling phone business to Microsoft Corp. in 2013. Alcatel-Lucent jumped 5.6 percent to 3.44 euros in Paris. Ericsson advanced 0.9 percent in Stockholm.

To be sure, the integration won’t be simple and further margin gains aren’t guaranteed. The companies have more than 110,000 workers combined, and will need to merge technology platforms and negotiate with labor unions in the quest for savings.

What’s more, each company has experienced failures with previous attempts to combine with a competitor. Alcatel’s $13.4 billion purchase of Lucent Technologies Inc. in 2006 resulted in years of losses, while Nokia struggled with its joint venture with Siemens AG, eventually buying out the German partner.

Ericsson is now the largest maker of wireless-network gear -- which includes equipment such as base stations and antennas that transmit mobile-phone calls and data -- with a market share of 25.7 percent in 2014, according to IDC. Huawei had 23.2 percent, Nokia 15.8 percent and Alcatel 11.4 percent share.

Agree it is a good summary.  I specially agree with the suggestion that Ericson will have its hands full once this merger is completed. NOK/ALU are indeed working together to control costs, are more "diligent and selective" when it comes to bidding on projects (i.e. far more disciplined execution than in the past), and from where I sit, they are implicitly or explicitly executing as a single entity.  

The fact that Michel Combes has announced that he is stepping down in September, makes me think this thing will close far sooner than originally believed, I think end of February is a decent guess, if not sooner.  I was very pleased with the results. That said, a lot of work remains to be done, specially extracting the so called "synergies", that all lies ahead once the merger is final.

Someone I know who is also in this stock (ALU) texted me while I was away, specifically saying that he felt underwhelmed about the "subdued" market reaction to the earnings.  I frankly was not surprised or underwhelmed at all, especially because I do know that this market is always in an Instant Gratification Mode, if you recall, INFN was making progress all along I was touting it, yet the market could not give a crap.  Well, look at where it is now.  Which begs the question:  Why did INFN go down to the mid 4s just two years ago if the company was sitting on such explosive technology????  Simple, the earnings had not yet materialized.  This is precisely what I look for in investments, a market that is ignoring great opportunities..

So, If the NOK/ALU merger delivers on half its promise, this thing will start shooting up from the time the merger is complete and rise to "overvalued" levels over the next 3.5 years.

IMO, given all the synergies that can be had, the combined company is in for an extended business cycle where growth will be the central theme.

 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

08/01/15 at 1:16 PM CDT

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