Intel and Micron have announced a 'breakthrough' non-volatile
memory called 3D Xpoint, which they pose as a replacement for NAND
flash, with all kinds of advantages. NAND was introduced in 1989,
and appears to be on its way out - not now, not immediately, but
eventually. lt cap and I have been vaguely following a start up
company NRAM, which has taken somthing like 14 years of
research to invent a nano-tube carbon (IIRC) based new memory whose
target it is to also replace NAND memory. I was originally
interested in how one might invest in this, but it still appears to
be in 'rounds' of private funding - i.e., private equity firms
(altho one is in Boston, near the company's Waltham Mass.
operations, and perhaps (didn't get that far in research) not
invested in dozens of speculative startups at the same time so
perhaps buying a stake in them, if it's 'buyable' migth be a way to
gain an early entry point), some senior executives from well known
tech companies (can't recall who, but it was interesting that
they'd sink a lot of personal wealth into this), etc. No pubic way
to 'buy in' at this point.
The reason this is interesting is that usually 'beneath the
radar', there are a number of companies (including HP for example)
that are developing next-gen memory, whose aim is to improve on,
and replace, NAND flash down the road, and the question is - who
will be the 'winner'(s)? To me, it's an interesting idea - can the
huge R and D resources of a company like Intel best a small startup
firm that is not even publicly traded yet? Could it be an INFN-like
story where the little guy has the best technology, and if so, may
have a huge growth curve at some point? It's too much research at
this point, and probably too many unknowns about the features,
viability, cost, etc. comparisons of the next-gen developers'
products, even if there is a way to compare them. But I'm
interested to follow this 'shadow' competition - when can we
compare the different products? I also think it's an example of how
strong INTC might be even in the face of the real troubles lt cap
has exposited, given that they've got a number of irons in the
fire. Not saying that developing new tech will replace lost revs
thru PC weakness, and INTC's failure to deliver the next die-shrink
on schedule, just that they're not a one-horse company the way AMD
is (which is up wickedly today - my broker, as usual, offers no
news.) Also, I wonder what the implications are for companies like
SanDisk - price has been cut in half, not withstanding their lead
in production of 3D Nand flash. When these new technologies become
viable replacements for NAND, what's the impact on companies whose
bread and butter relies current on the use of NAND?