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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

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Date:

07/28/15 at 2:21 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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OT - INTC SNDK memory tech

Intel and Micron have announced a 'breakthrough' non-volatile memory called 3D Xpoint, which they pose as a replacement for NAND flash, with all kinds of advantages. NAND was introduced in 1989, and appears to be on its way out - not now, not immediately, but eventually. lt cap and I have been vaguely following a start up company NRAM, which has taken somthing like 14  years of research to invent a nano-tube carbon (IIRC) based new memory whose target it is to also replace NAND memory. I was originally interested in how one might invest in this, but it still appears to be in 'rounds' of private funding - i.e., private equity firms (altho one is in Boston, near the company's Waltham Mass. operations, and perhaps (didn't get that far in research) not invested in dozens of speculative startups at the same time so perhaps buying a stake in them, if it's 'buyable' migth be a way to gain an early entry point), some senior executives from well known tech companies (can't recall who, but it was interesting that they'd sink a lot of personal wealth into this), etc. No pubic way to 'buy in' at this point. 

The reason this is interesting is that usually 'beneath the radar', there are a number of companies (including HP for example) that are developing next-gen memory, whose aim is to improve on, and replace, NAND flash down the road, and the question is - who will be the 'winner'(s)? To me, it's an interesting idea - can the huge R and D resources of a company like Intel best a small startup firm that is not even publicly traded yet? Could it be an INFN-like story where the little guy has the best technology, and if so, may have a huge growth curve at some point? It's too much research at this point, and probably too many unknowns about the features, viability, cost, etc. comparisons of the next-gen developers' products, even if there is a way to compare them. But I'm interested to follow this 'shadow' competition - when can we compare the different products? I also think it's an example of how strong INTC might be even in the face of the real troubles lt cap has exposited, given that they've got a number of irons in the fire. Not saying that developing new tech will replace lost revs thru PC weakness, and INTC's failure to deliver the next die-shrink on schedule, just that they're not a one-horse company the way AMD is (which is up wickedly today - my broker, as usual, offers no news.) Also, I wonder what the implications are for companies like SanDisk - price has been cut in half, not withstanding their lead in production of 3D Nand flash. When these new technologies become viable replacements for NAND, what's the impact on companies whose bread and butter relies current on the use of NAND?

 

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