Jon,

On NVDA, I held my breath through earnings yesterday. Beat on revs, earnings, and upped their projections for Q3. Basically static today, one could explain that as either all the good news is priced in, or, on datacenter chips, their growth was 6%, not a 'wowing' number, and the beat was fueled by their acquisition of Mellanox, which was accretive to income. (They get no props for that? Analysts have said it's a brilliant acquisition. And a company buys another in part because it is accretive to earnings. But it's not organic. So argue it either way.) The NVDA strength, and why I continue to hold it, is their lead in AI baked into all kinds of chips - datacenter, and....their graphics cards. I don't believe AMD will be able to touch them in the high end. NVDA will release their nextgen 3000 series cards based on Ampere tech, 7nm, and with the AI they're using, they should be boffo cards. Furthermore, they've been aggressive in breaking into new markets - this was the first quarter in which their datacenter rev outpaced graphics card revs. And they're deep into autonomous vehicle tech, and other AI-enhanced applications. And well run. The founder and CEO saw the opportunity to diversify away from graphics only and did so extremely successfully. They're in serious talks to acquire ARM. Credit Suisse today raised their PT to $530. Analysts are saying that the console upgrade will help them, as PC gamers buy new cards to match the experience of the new consoles. I don't know about that logic - Why drop more money on a card when you can buy a console for about the same price? (Well, for me, it's because I'm married to a mouse and keyboard for most gaming.)

That said, yeah, I can totally understand why buying in here is something that would give one pause. They're priced for perfection. Although, I have also been mulling that once one passes a certain multiple, does it matter? Is 92x different from 127x?  Apple seems to me largely based on future expectations. (They hit a new high today around $467.) They have yet to sell 1 5g phone, yet.....the street is betting on a huge upgrade cycle when they do have the phones for sale. Sell the news when it happens? Who knows?  I guess one could argue that CIEN has great future prospects as 5G gets real. But given that it's only selling around 30x, I guess that's a bargain in this market. 

When does all this fall? Wish I knew.