lt cap, et. al.,
I agree with much of your thinking on this. I am, probably, the
most 'Cassandra-like' on the board. But I think we may
re-test the March lows. I'd be pleasingly amazed if the 'opening
up' didn't result in a rash of higher death rates, with
subsequently even more political clashes between those who value
business above life, and vice-versa. If that somehow doesn't
happen, I think the next 'wave', whether it comes in the fall
or winter, will be so psychologically demoralizing, the market will
catch the 'fever.' If it's coming is inevitable, hopefully it comes
soon enough to crush any chance of a Trump re-election. Short
candidates? American Greetings? Not so many "Happy Birthday' cards
to grandma and grandpa? (sorry, sorry - terrible joke.)
But don't take my word for it. Laurie Garrett, a Pulitzer prize
winning science/disease journalist, had an interesting turn on PBS
newhour tonight:
pbs.org/ne...deaths
She also was the subject of this NY Times Piece:
nytimes.com/20...316408
If, as I think, the 'opening' of America will result in a large
spike of infections and deaths, it'll be interesting to see how all
of this gets 'spun' - obviously a lot of our lack of preparedness
and what may be foolish choices will try to be 'drowned out' by
blaming it on the Chinese. Trump supporters are probably receptive
to that. When I see people 'protesting' without face masks and
without distancing, I figure the best we get out of that is, if
they're wrong and all die, the general of the IQ of the country
gets a boost. Small consolation.
I apologize for the pessimism, bad jokes, unkind references. I
do feel badly for the people that have to go to poorly paying,
dangerous jobs that threaten their health because they need the
money. We are, after all, the fortunate - those who can invest
their money to become 'more fortunate'.