Jamok,

I think you were well in fear mode there along with the market. Hopefully you feel better now after the last few days. I hope everyone here is keeping safe, including your family and friends.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a test of the recent lows in the next few weeks. Tomorrow mornings unemployment numbers should be grim, and probably worse than expected. The virus situation in NY especially is also dire. I don't think parts of the country are doing enough either, especially Florida. The shutdown really needs to be all over, all at once, for at least 3-4 weeks. We're also coming up to earnings season. Nothing but bad news for a while, unless investors are pinning hopes on Italy showing a slowdown in new cases and deaths. Let's see how they fare when they try to open up again.

I doubt we'll see 50% or more drops from the highs. The stimulus is just so much. 0% rates, QE5 forever with $587BN bought by the Fed in the last week (!!!!!!), and this $2TN stimulus. Even if people are unemployed, that's a lot of money being added to the system. The projections of everything returning to normal later in the year look optimistic to me, especially as more people see a more personal impact from the virus in the next few weeks, whether it's someone they know who is suffering, or seeing images on TV of packed ICU's and so on. We'll all have to continue being careful until a vaccine. I know I'm not heading to a cinema or dine-in restaurant any time soon after the shutdowns end.

There is light at the end of the tunnel. Trump wants to be reckless and open things up too soon, however I do expect warming weather to help slow the virus transmission. Studies have been done on the ideal climate for it to thrive. This applies more to the Southern US than the NW or NE though, sorry Jamok. I cannot believe the Republican mantra that grandparents should be willing to die to save the economy though, wow. Memories of Logan's Run.

Trump will probably try to get everything opened too soon, more people will catch it and die, but he'll take no responsibility and blame the States for any future outbreaks. The market will care more about the economy being open for business than some people dying. All in all, we're just another brick in the wall.