lt cap, and all,

I don't mean to be alarmist. I've sold about 5% of my stocks to raise cash to buy more promising things. Like a bit of Microsoft, to start. The downsprialing 'pain' has probably been great for all of us. Now, I'm not saying that I'm going to do this - I really need some time to think about it - but I'm mulling doing some more selling - at a maximum, maybe a % across the board, except for those stocks I really believe in, on Monday. Why am I at least mulling this?

1. I think the infection is going to get much, much worse. The NY Times had this wonderful (not the proper word for it) graph of how many people per day, per million population, were being tested. At the time, S. Korea topped the list - 5,000 tests per day. (In today's news I read/saw that S. Korea is doing 15,000 tests per day, so that seems like too large a ramp-up in a short time, but maybe they got a huge delivery, I don't know.) They named all the relevant countries, and Greece was 2nd to last, testing about 125 people per million per day. Guess who was last? Right - The US, who at the time was testing a little over 100 people per million per day. I think the sharp spike we've seen in the last couple of days is an indication of how widespread the infection is. It just hasn't shown up previously because we didn't have the tests available to find those infected, even as doctors pleaded for test kits, among other essential medical items that are still all fouled up by Trump's lack of adequate response. So, I think, the more test kits that become available, the worse this is going to become evident. So even if the basics of the economy were intact, I think the huge fear that is rolling itself out may drown out any good market news, as people really start to panic. (I went out on an 'essentials run' for several hours yesterday. I was one of a minority wearing latex gloves, not to mention a mask. The traffic was pretty brisk. I had lost a valuable hearing aid somewhere along the way, (making this the most expensive bottle of bleach I ever snagged, lol), so I made the rounds of the stores I had been to, to see if I could locate it. The traffic was noticeably much, much thinner (a good thing), with people in gloves, and sometimes masks, shopping. But the majority of shoppers that were out were unprotected. I think the contrast between the two days is only a taste of what's to come. New York will certainly, as LT Cap pointed out, become our "Italy". But then, the whole country may become our "Italy", unless people really get the message (your teenager can easily infect the whole family). Not to mention that things like masks, hand sanitizer, and the other things that one needs are gone. But also, just in watching the difference between last night and today, Walmart's shelves were being emptied of all kinds of cleaner (the whole bleach section had 6 bottles), food, paper towels, all of it.

2. It's worrisome to see the estimates for the economic wreckage from this continually get re-calculated. At first it was the first quarter would be down by .4%, the second, down by 5% (I'm using major bank/analyst figures.) Then, it become .5 and 10%, now, I'm hearing .5 and 20-30% for the second. Some reputable figures, at the extremes, are saying the economic damage and recession will be 'like nothing we've ever seen', given that the worst damage will be to small businesses. And consumer spending is, arguably, what has propped the market up, given that comopanies in general have been reluctant to deplay capex the last 18-24 months. (I liked Mark Shield's comment on the PBS Newshour last night - He said if companies like the airlines want $50 billion dollar bailouts, fine. But that stake should make the government the owner of the airlines. And the CEO's should be paid like other public servants, such as the memebers of Congress - $174k/year. Imagine that, lol.)

Anyway, long story short, I'm really trying to think through both the fear that seems sure to surge and engulf the country as the rise in cases, and deaths, *not to mention the hosptial system becoming  overwhelmed (with dying people in the corridors?)*, and the economic damage may mean we haven't even nearly seen the bottom of this market. If there are opinons among you why we can't equal or surpass the 50% market downturn of 2008, I'd be interested to hear counter-thinking.

Not to be all gloom and doom, but if I'm dead, it doesn't matter how many hearing aids I've lost. Or how much money I've lost in the market. Larry Kudlow (being the drug-addled dandy he is) said unemployment might reach 20% (which was later 'retracted' by and aide, saying it wasn't a 'prediction.' said, just yesterday or so I think, like all the brokers, that this was a huge 'buying opportunity.' I can't really see it. I hope I'm wrong.

BTW, I think the NY Times has the best general coverage of this. You can get a year's subscription for $2/wk. If you have Amazon Prime, used to be, (maybe still) The Washington Post had 6 months free, then $4.99/mo. (which is what I pay now.) They both often break important stories, such as the simulation run by the govt. in 2019 of a severe pandemic, that showed hospitals getting quickly overwhelmed, and 2.2 million people dying.

Lastly - I may not sell more stock on Monday. I'll mull this. Maybe I'll be a deer in the headlights. Maybe I'm quite wrong. Hope so.