lt cap,

Thanks for the contribution. I wonder what your take on how relevant Arista is to CIEN's business - but I guess we'll find that out on Thursday when they report. It's really kind of an 

interesting case - We've got CIEN's note of caution from their last CC, altho it was a great quarter, and we have UBS turning deadly negative on the stock. And there is both the question

of price competition that may cut margins, and (I think) the real rollout of 5g deployment is going to be a delayed, drawn-out process that will take longer than people thought. One source

I read said that full deployment may occur by around 2025. If all of that's true, and any part is hardily confirmed by the CC, those of us in the stock are going to be sorely disappointed, not

to mention hurt. If CIEN shows that a lot of these worries are not sector-wide, well, figure it out: We've seen stocks in the sector move 25% on good or bad news. 25% from about $35 would be $7. Which would propel the stock to about $42 - whoopee - far below the 15 or so (I'm using memory) analysts who rate the stock 'overweight', buy, or strong buy. So, you've got 15 bulls and 1 strong bear in UBS's sell. Is the guy prescient? He certainly has the latest report. Or is he a fool? Clearly, the market is spooked. I'm tempted to buy here and sell covered calls, as the stock seems oversold to me. But the premiums aren't worth the downside risk.

Funny that the market is in 'happy mode' with no trade deal in sight, impeachment in the offing, and President Cheetos as unpredictable and unknowledgeable as ever. But a stock like CIEN that has actually been delivering the goods gets whacked after a pretty darn good CC. Go figure. I think Apple has more risks, and it's at all time highs.