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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

03/12/19 at 6:06 AM CDT

 

 

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Reply to:

MSG`#4942,`03/11/19
By breinejm

 

Re: OT: The Economy - Chances of a recession

I think the Huawei issue is completely separate from Trade, however, I could be wrong and Trump may be using it as a lever in these Trade talks..  In principle, I think it should be a separate issue.

Huawei is indeed superior at this point.  They have enormous capital resources and much cheaper labor so that is a nice advantage. To be fair, they got this big by outright stealing IP for many years, and used cost as the weapon to grab marketshare. This is one of myy pet peeve against Huawei as well as potential security issues.  IMO, China uses everything they need to spy on the US, just like we do.  It is an espionage war, governments should use all at their disposal. So in my mind Huawei is fair game given all they have stolen.

The US will keep pressuring countries to drop Huawei.  That said, the cycle will benefit all, to different degrees of course.  Nokia's RAN (Radio Access Network) is unfortunately not quite best in class, they need to continue to invest in it to catch up.  However, Nokia offsets that somewhat by having a truly end to end portfolio.  All in all I do believe Ericson and Nokia will come out OK.  Huawei will continue to be number one given that much of Africa, Middle East and South America and possibly the Southeast Asia are still in its camp.

 

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