OT:  My opinion on the chances of a recession:

The US has slowed down significantly. Starting in October it seemed as if we could tilt into one, but the Fed reversed course and save the day, AGAIN. The ECB is making a lot of noise that it will get into an easing mode, so that should put a floor underneath their economy.

Interest Rates are still incredibly low on a historical basis.  While traditional industires like Housing, Commodities, Autos, and Household goods have slowed down markedly.  Tech is still reporting good earnings, employment is still strong (evidence of how deep the crisis was), and consumers are holding up quite well, with arguably havig the best balance sheet since the crisis.

Because of the easing stance here and in Europe, I think the worst is for  a very shallw and brief recession late nex year.