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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Analysis

Date:

05/14/18 at 1:13 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 3

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1

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#4686,`05/13/18
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: INFN post earnings

lt cap,

I'm glad to hear that the 'pricing pressure' isssue may well be less dire than it was interpreted by the analysts (and the stock market by voting to the woodshed for punishment, as INFN got initially crushed.)  I had been wondering whether the sector has something of a 'no win' feature built in: In times of capex drought, everyone suffers to one degree or another. As capex begins to flow, the sector might get into 'bidding wars', sacrificing margins to garner business. If that were true, it might only be in a 'capex flood' situation that real, sustained profits can be made. But I am mindful that once you buy equipment, you are married to that equipment for the life of its cycle - can't use Ford parts in a Chevy, and so to almost 'give away' initial equipment would be made up on the back end, as a company becomes a 'sole vendor'. I do wonder when a company, say a telecom company, uses several suppliers, whether these are for decrete segments of their hardware, or whether it allows them some flexibility in who they buy from. Probably the former. Regardless, the whole sector, including NOK are having a hard time of it today. It makes me start to think about buying more CIEN, as it's been in a downtrend even before INFN reported. But we all know how inaccurate trying to pre-guess how CCs are. I would think it mandatory that in the CIEN CC there has to be analyst's questions about pricing pressure, since it was CIEN that was specifically named in the INFN CC. If CIEN could convincingly dispel that pricing impact.......?

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