|
Re: INFN post
earnings
lt cap,
I'm glad to hear that the 'pricing pressure' isssue may well be
less dire than it was interpreted by the analysts (and the stock
market by voting to the woodshed for punishment, as INFN got
initially crushed.) I had been wondering whether the sector
has something of a 'no win' feature built in: In times of capex
drought, everyone suffers to one degree or another. As capex begins
to flow, the sector might get into 'bidding wars', sacrificing
margins to garner business. If that were true, it might only be in
a 'capex flood' situation that real, sustained profits can be made.
But I am mindful that once you buy equipment, you are married to
that equipment for the life of its cycle - can't use Ford parts in
a Chevy, and so to almost 'give away' initial equipment would be
made up on the back end, as a company becomes a 'sole vendor'. I do
wonder when a company, say a telecom company, uses several
suppliers, whether these are for decrete segments of their
hardware, or whether it allows them some flexibility in who they
buy from. Probably the former. Regardless, the whole sector,
including NOK are having a hard time of it today. It makes me start
to think about buying more CIEN, as it's been in a downtrend even
before INFN reported. But we all know how inaccurate trying to
pre-guess how CCs are. I would think it mandatory that in the CIEN
CC there has to be analyst's questions about pricing pressure,
since it was CIEN that was specifically named in the INFN CC. If
CIEN could convincingly dispel that pricing impact.......?
|
|