lt cap,

Thanks for all the essential parts of the CC. I'll look forward to how it strikes you when you've collected your thoughts. 

I had thought that if things went really badly, we might see the $6's. And, well, here we are. 

The pattern seems monotonously familiar - lower guidance, suggest 2018 won't help (even if it's couched in 'softer terms' - lack of visibility, which leaves open the possibility that things might be better than expected in 18) - but the street won't buy it - a quick bullet to the head seems to be the common response. I did see some analysts lower PTs, but also saw that the average PT is $11 - which seems way too optimistic perhaps. More analysts yet to weigh in.

And I'm grateful that you shared your clear-eyed vision here, as it led me to half my NOK and INFN positions, which just seems wise at this point. I had hoped that CIEN might do a surprise CC, which happened several quarters ago, but now I expect them to follow the same 'capex drought, unclear guidance' pattern. Maybe there will be an options play closer to when they report in early December.  ATT said today that it saw itself spending $1 bln on capex if Trump's corporate tax cut was enacted. But I think that's just BS to try to get the SEC to soften up on what it would require to approve a Time Warner deal. So it goes.

One thing that causes me concern is this: Given that, if I've got it right, any significant capex shift won't happen until at least 2019, what are the chances between now and then that we won't see at least a sharp correction, and more likely a recession between now and then? And in those circumstances, the weak seem to get beaten the most. Or maybe the Fed can keep all the plates spinning, given the mixed signals of the recovery.