lt cap,
Indeed - it's the bane of fallen companies - can't lowball
estimates or you'll get punished further for a poor(er) outlook.
Can't highball them, as you'll lose further credibility. I guess
the only thing one can hope for is that the CEO does have an
accurate handle on future prospects.
I'm curious/concerned about this: Tech doesn't stay static. If
we're talking about 2 or more years before capex spending becomes
less dismal as 5g really is introduced, is it possible that the
players with the best technology may change entirely, as R and D
brings new products online to sell? Or are development timelines so
long that one can assume that NOK would have nearly the same
technology chops and leads that it has today when the time comes
that spending finally increases? I am reminded of a part of INFN's
offerings becoming instantly obsolete by the software
implementation that replaced one of their lines of hardware. Or
that (if I've got it right) INTC's and Micron's announcement of
Optane memory, which will radically shift the solid state memory
market, wasn't announced until it was almost ready for market.
Speaking of which - Here's the first review I've seen of their
consumer version of Optane, labeling it as the fastest SSD device
Tom's Hardware ever tested, altho it is pricey, altho they chalk
that up to 'high demand':
tomshardware.com/re...cation
From what I've read, it seems that Optane will be the successor
to NAND/flash, as it is stunningly faster. How much of INTC's
business it will account for, I don't know. But they and Micron are
the sole owners of this thing, and if they're not the sole vendors,
then I'd think the need to 'bend the knee' and pay handsome
licensing fees if others want to produce this next-gen memory
should be a nice stream of revenue for a long time. Good to be
king.