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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

11/15/16 at 4:39 PM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - NOK CIEN

<p>OT - of course I can't cut and paste, but it's alarming how NOK seems to be in 'free fall' these last several days, shedding considerable % per day. The note I read was post-investors-day event: Seems that they are citing some pretty bad numbers predictions for (I think) what is their main business for 2017, and the market seems to be reacting sharply to that. The conclusion, I *think* is that they're providing some detail, and some concurrence, that in the next year or so things are going to be fairly ugly, I would guess esp. the lack of capex spending? and the 'lull' in transition from 4g to 4.9? g to 5 g. the thesis that once this 'stuff' is out of the way, the way looks good to them in the long term view. Which has always been the investing thesis, altho it seems no one forsaw just how bad capex spending would become, if I understand all this correctly. So, is the takeaway that the long term is quite intact, at least by their and other co's projections, but in the short term - owie! The only troubling thing is that anyone and everyone can predict sunny skies down the road, and then revise it when we 'arrive' there. (Just ask Jester about predictions for economic growth and the revisions as time proves them wrong.) However, we are also talking about real-world 'properties' and what has to come - sometimes I wonder why the irrefutable idea that data demand *has*to increase over time dosen't again come to the fore. Perhaps the market is pricing in Trump starting a nuclear war with......who knows? Or maybe he just lets country like S. Korea and Germany to go it alone, and start their own version of nuclear rubble.</p> <p>On Cien - Unreal that as NOK loses day to day, CIEN just seems on fire lately. Sold Dec. 23 stk $24 on my entire position. Just following my 'higher power'.</p>

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