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OT - NOK CIEN
<p>OT - of course I can't cut and paste, but it's alarming
how NOK seems to be in 'free fall' these last several days,
shedding considerable % per day. The note I read was
post-investors-day event: Seems that they are citing some pretty
bad numbers predictions for (I think) what is their main business
for 2017, and the market seems to be reacting sharply to that. The
conclusion, I *think* is that they're providing some detail, and
some concurrence, that in the next year or so things are going to
be fairly ugly, I would guess esp. the lack of capex spending? and
the 'lull' in transition from 4g to 4.9? g to 5 g. the thesis that
once this 'stuff' is out of the way, the way looks good to them in
the long term view. Which has always been the investing thesis,
altho it seems no one forsaw just how bad capex spending would
become, if I understand all this correctly. So, is the takeaway
that the long term is quite intact, at least by their and other
co's projections, but in the short term - owie! The only troubling
thing is that anyone and everyone can predict sunny skies down the
road, and then revise it when we 'arrive' there. (Just ask Jester
about predictions for economic growth and the revisions as time
proves them wrong.) However, we are also talking about real-world
'properties' and what has to come - sometimes I wonder why the
irrefutable idea that data demand *has*to increase over time
dosen't again come to the fore. Perhaps the market is pricing in
Trump starting a nuclear war with......who knows? Or maybe he just
lets country like S. Korea and Germany to go it alone, and start
their own version of nuclear rubble.</p> <p>On Cien -
Unreal that as NOK loses day to day, CIEN just seems on fire
lately. Sold Dec. 23 stk $24 on my entire position. Just following
my 'higher power'.</p>
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