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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

08/16/16 at 10:03 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 1

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RECS:1

Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#3885,`08/15/16
By Jam ok

 

Re: OT - CIEN

I've shorted EA several times in the high $79's and covering for a point or more. It's been in this $75-$80 range for a month now, and aside from the typical CB buying to levitate all markets regardless of deteriorating fundamentals, it's hard to make a case for going higher. Did you read that soon the BOJ will be the top shareholder in over 50 big Japanese companies? Madness, utter madness.

It's interesting, EA said in their most recent earnings that they aren't doing non-GAAP earnings any more. You'd think this would help make parsing the numbers easier, but for the life of me I cannot figure out how analysts report $3.55 non-GAAP guidance for the year ending March. The GAAP guidance is $2.56. Even if we go with the non-GAAP, at the recent highs of $80 that's 22.5x forward numbers, which is much higher than the market average, which itself is very high historically. If we assume the following year is around $4, again using the higher non-GAAP figures, and say the market prices that March 2018 figure in calendar Q2, $80 would still be a slightly high multiple. 

Can any of you explain how to get the $3.55 non-GAAP number please?

investor.ea.com/

ATVI is in the $40-$43 range for the last month, and I'd be interested in shorting it closer to the highs for a trade. or maybe sell puts after a stops hunt if it goes below $40.

My speculative long recently has been VRX. If you believe they'll stay in business, they're dirt cheap. IMO there has been a long basing process in the low $20's, and there's the chance for short covering, and some big sellers have already sold out and likely many other potential sellers have also exited, so it could easily run to $38 (recent highs twice) or even $60 (the low before the March crash). No doubt there are many challenges, such as the debt and the public/Congress pressure on drug pricing, but they're priced in imo and are fodded for "not as bad as expected" narratives later.

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