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OT - CIEN
<p>Jon,</p> <p>As you said - 'I'm not sure
anyone knows what they're doing in regards to earnings' on CIEN. I
am following the smart money (you), and have sezied the opp to sell
covered calls stk 22 exp 9/16 for $1.08. My entire position. My
expectations for CIEN in the short run have been reduced from
watching it skyrocket to getting out with at least even. And those
calls do that, with a small profit, if it finishes ITM. Aside from
following your lead, my thinking on CIEN short-term is this:
Although they have a pretty strong relationship with NA customers
(ATT?), about 3 CC's ago, their ship came in and the price rose to
$25+ which made the analysts giddy with higher PTs. The next two
CC's were pretty ugly, and as you know, we went to somewhere in the
mid-teens, without any huge hope of stimulus sometime soon. On top
of that, look at the difficulty the sector is having, altho some of
them don't overlap CIEN's territory: Juniper was a disappointment
with a 6% drop. Ericsson's CC was not pretty, and NOK followed
suit. INFN had fallen 40 stories and it looked liked it was about
to hit the pavement, and then it fell another 40 stories upon the
most most messed up CC they have ever had. So, why should CIEN be
any different, except that their focus in the NA market,
which I'm not sure means it's a good thing. </p>
<p>If CIEN surpises to the upside, well, ok, I will lighten
in a sector where I am way overloaded. Anyone want to buy my INFN
at $11? Watching INFN these days is like watching Helen Keller play
videogames. I am still deep in NOK, which I will hold for however
long it takes.</p>
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