On NOK, I have a much better opinion than INFN.
The revenues from wireless sector has been very hard to predict.
The slow down has been much more severe than these companies
anticipated, analysts too have been clueless. However, there
is now consensus that its rate of decline peaked and it has begun
to meaningfuly decelerate, it may be bottoming. If I may be bold
enough to assume that the companies and analysts have begun to get
a real handle on this, then I can feel a lot more confident that
NOK has now more levers and maneuvering room to deal with the
remaining period before 5G starts to be deployed en mass.
The combination of NOK and ALU is, if I may repeat this for the
nth time, the absolute correct thing to do to scale the company and
move it solidly above Ericson to become the number 2 supplier of
wireless gear and acquire the number 2 (or three?) supplier
of Routers and switches. The transformation of this company
is well on its way, and what a difference between now and 4/5 years
ago.
As I stated yesterday, the Merril Lynch folks have proven to me
that they have the correct Nokia pulse. I am reading the Merril
Lynch post Nokia earnings report and they continue to be very
bullish. In fact they state the report was " Nokia delivered
a solid/in line 2Q in a tough industry backdrop". They
highlight the fact that management now estimates; " 1) The
introduction of a 7-9% margin range vs a 7% floor established with
1Q suggests higher confidence that the worst in margin terms is
behind us. 2) Management suggested margins will likely be above 8%
if it executes well on extracting initial deal savings in 2H."
The report also states that the E1.5B buyback program begins in
the 4th Quarter. TOn cost reductions they state: "Cost synergies
should ramp up from here and become a meaningful tailwind into
2017-18 while yoy revenue declines are beginning to improve."