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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

08/10/16 at 12:40 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 4

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#3876,`08/09/16
By Jam ok

 

Re: INFN: Management doubles down

On NOK, I have a much better opinion than INFN.

The revenues from wireless sector has been very hard to predict. The slow down has been much more severe than these companies anticipated, analysts too have been clueless.  However, there is now consensus that its rate of decline peaked and it has begun to meaningfuly decelerate, it may be bottoming. If I may be bold enough to assume that the companies and analysts have begun to get a real handle on this, then I can feel a lot more confident that NOK has now more levers and maneuvering room to deal with the remaining period before 5G starts to be deployed en mass.  

The combination of NOK and ALU is, if I may repeat this for the nth time, the absolute correct thing to do to scale the company and move it solidly above Ericson to become the number 2 supplier of wireless gear and acquire the number 2 (or three?)  supplier of Routers and switches.  The transformation of this company is well on its way, and what a difference between now and 4/5 years ago.

As I stated yesterday, the Merril Lynch folks have proven to me that they have the correct Nokia pulse. I am reading the Merril Lynch post Nokia earnings report and they continue to be very bullish.  In fact they state the report was " Nokia delivered a solid/in line 2Q in a tough industry backdrop".  They highlight the fact that management now estimates;  " 1) The introduction of a 7-9% margin range vs a 7% floor established with 1Q suggests higher confidence that the worst in margin terms is behind us. 2) Management suggested margins will likely be above 8% if it executes well on extracting initial deal savings in 2H."

The report also states that the E1.5B buyback program begins in the 4th Quarter. TOn cost reductions they state: "Cost synergies should ramp up from here and become a meaningful tailwind into 2017-18 while yoy revenue declines are beginning to improve."

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