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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

07/06/16 at 2:48 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

ot - networkers

<p>OT - networking</p> <p>Seems to me that, with some exceptions (Goldman's upgrade of NOK, Jeffries bullish on INFN, etc.) the analyst community, and the market, is pretty bearish on the sector.  </p> <p>When I look at other sector names that we've not discussed - they also seem to be largely bumping around bottoms of 52 week lows. Juniper for instance, that also just got a downgrade from buy to hold.</p> <p>The bandwitdth-must-grow thesis is still intact I think. I've not heard the rationale for negative outlooks. The only thing I can figure is that given that global growth is slowing, and that's a fact (Jester has pointed out that not only do US gdp projections shrink as we get closer to them across time, so do international outlooks), the assumption might be that bandwidth demand will be a longer, more drawn out process than anticipated. I can't really see another rationale.</p> <p>Brexit of course adds to the worries. And if Trump were elected (a very low probability event - unless Goldman left a McLaren in Hillary's driveway after her talk to them), I think the markets would be so volatile and negative on uncertainty that it'd be worse than Brexit.</p> <p>So the sector seems to be fragile at the moment. I was surprised to see NOK as low as $5.22 today, after my buy yesterday. It could get a lot rougher before it's over. And I'd expect go get some mileage long term, as NOK proves that the ALU acquisition is producing the synergies and savings promised.</p> <p> </p>

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