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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

07/01/16 at 9:40 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 3

RPLY: 2

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RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Brexit is great news now?

What a recovery from the Brexit lows. Just when the market looked like it was rolling over, the Central Banks come back in force. We can only speculate how much futures and index buying they were doing, and we do know there is now chatter of BOE doing more QE and rate cuts, and the chances of the Fed cutting rates is now higher than raising, and the expectation of a raise is being pushed back to 2018, plus the Italian banks are being bailed out. Once again, bullishness over Central Banks failed policies and printing machines trumps economic news, which is actually quite bad. The UK is likely to weaken and potentially dissolve, and the EU is cracking. It's funny too how the narrative was that raising rates is great news because it confirms the Fed may finally be right for once with their bullish economic forecasts, however now a rate hike expectation is being pushed back years, you know they'll cite the EU/Brexit "uncertainty" in coming months, and that's even better news! So we have poor S&P earnings, downgrades to international growth outlook, and big new political and market uncertainties, this equals a surge to new highs!

At least I covered my QQQ hedge shorts near the lows because the drop seemed excessive, although I've re-entered those too soon during the V ramp higher. I also picked up INFN in the mid $10's because again the drop seemed excessive, and I kept in mind the recent insider buying at higher levels. I sold that early today.

I'm not interested in EA or ATVI here. They aren't cheap enough to buy, and the case for breaking to new highs looks weak.

Is anyone looking at Valeant, VRX? It seems to me it's at fire sale prices around $19-$21. OK sure, the macro story is still bad: high debt, lack of pricing pressure, but surely that's been priced in and then some with the huge decline from $263? It looks dirt cheap too, plus a new respected CEO, plus insider buying in the mid $20's if I recall right, and non-GAAP earnings of nearly $7 expected this year. The bears will point to non-GAAP vs GAAP but that's the whole market, and nobody cares about other stocks regarding that.

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