What a recovery from the Brexit lows. Just when the market
looked like it was rolling over, the Central Banks come back in
force. We can only speculate how much futures and index buying they
were doing, and we do know there is now chatter of BOE doing more
QE and rate cuts, and the chances of the Fed cutting rates is now
higher than raising, and the expectation of a raise is being pushed
back to 2018, plus the Italian banks are being bailed out. Once
again, bullishness over Central Banks failed policies and printing
machines trumps economic news, which is actually quite bad. The UK
is likely to weaken and potentially dissolve, and the EU is
cracking. It's funny too how the narrative was that raising rates
is great news because it confirms the Fed may finally be right for
once with their bullish economic forecasts, however now a rate hike
expectation is being pushed back years, you know they'll cite the
EU/Brexit "uncertainty" in coming months, and that's even better
news! So we have poor S&P earnings, downgrades to international
growth outlook, and big new political and market uncertainties,
this equals a surge to new highs!
At least I covered my QQQ hedge shorts near the lows because the
drop seemed excessive, although I've re-entered those too soon
during the V ramp higher. I also picked up INFN in the mid $10's
because again the drop seemed excessive, and I kept in mind the
recent insider buying at higher levels. I sold that early
today.
I'm not interested in EA or ATVI here. They aren't cheap enough
to buy, and the case for breaking to new highs looks weak.
Is anyone looking at Valeant, VRX? It seems to me it's at fire
sale prices around $19-$21. OK sure, the macro story is still bad:
high debt, lack of pricing pressure, but surely that's been priced
in and then some with the huge decline from $263? It looks dirt
cheap too, plus a new respected CEO, plus insider buying in the mid
$20's if I recall right, and non-GAAP earnings of nearly $7
expected this year. The bears will point to non-GAAP vs GAAP but
that's the whole market, and nobody cares about other stocks
regarding that.