Jester,
Indeed it is so - All of them - NOK, INFN,CIEN are at or near 52
weeks lows. I suppose one could at least partly hang it on none of
them have had good-news CC's lately. As per my post, it's puzzling
between the data demand this is/has to come, and the capex
impoverishment. My un-learned mind in this area says that, at least
for the telecoms, 5g is the next big driver of capex spending. and
NOK says that, while 5g won't be in broad use/new standard until
2020, they'll have their products ready by, I think it was, 2018.
And CIEN has joined with INTC and CSCO to do what sounds like the
same thing. So does that delay data demand in the telecom sector? I
can't fathom how other data-demand driven sectors (e.g., Netflix,
streaming 4k is in its infancy, etc.) are going to be feasible
without better, faster equipment, but there is the disconnect
beteen that and the capex drought.
Or, as you say, more succinctly - when the market hates a
sector, it shows no mercy. In the back of me head, when I read that
the mega-deals on equipment are much rarer, a thing of the past,
does it not mean that companies are in fierce competition for puny
capex spending right now? And if so, why would there not be a
price-war? When we were on the INFN boat, I remember ALU stealing
the deal last-minute by pretty much giving the equipment away.
That, at least, would make some sense of this. But I haven't heard
much in the CCs that would suggest the corrolaries of such a
situation - margin shrinkage, etc. - are happening.
So I guess I just hold on and wait for a recovery in the long
run. I've looked at option prices and given the volatility in the
sector, none of them look all that attractive. Or, one could think
- can't go lower from here - I'd expect that PE and other
indicators say these stocks are cheap - but then, I also thought
that when they were a good deal higher.
Patience, patience.
As for EA, I guess when the market likes a given sector it
*really* likes it, lol. I'm mildly surprised to see more
follow-thru rather than pullback and consolidation post CC for
EA.