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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

04/12/16 at 2:48 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 3

RPLY: 1

0

0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#3556,`04/12/16
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: JNPR guidance disappoints

lt cap,

I was wondering what the problem is, as the only news I saw was Moody's upgrading CIEN debt to B1 from B2. Along with the lightreading article you provided earlier, it *seems* like the concern is that growth is slowing, telcos are delaying deployments (again/and again/and), and probably some folks are thinking what kind of slowdow we'd see if there was a worldwide recession. All of which, I'd imagine, revolves around the elephant in the room, mentioned, I think, in the lightreading article, or at least skillfully implied: With all the net op companies worried about growth and business, a price war probably isn't out of the question. I remember how pissed we were when ALU, apparently on its deathbed, stole an ATT I think deal from INFN - essentially giving the equipment away in trade for future business gains. 

And I don't understand well the technical side of it, but IIRC, that was the big 'hump' INFN had to get over - that they're here to stay, as once you choose an equipment company as your supplier, you're locked into their products. I don't know how InPhi's 'disruptor' tech fits into that, but I'm sure it's not good.

INFN is attractive below 15 I think. But besides everyone awaiting comment on how InPhi will affect their DCI box business, I can't recall the last time (aside from analyst's comments) I read an article that said demand is bullish right now, as opposed to in the long run, the secular trend trumps all. Perhaps the long-honored principle of the street having a short attention span, as opposed to the patience a good number of us are sticking by.

 

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