lt cap,
I was wondering what the problem is, as the only news I saw was
Moody's upgrading CIEN debt to B1 from B2. Along with the
lightreading article you provided earlier, it *seems* like the
concern is that growth is slowing, telcos are delaying deployments
(again/and again/and), and probably some folks are thinking what
kind of slowdow we'd see if there was a worldwide recession. All of
which, I'd imagine, revolves around the elephant in the room,
mentioned, I think, in the lightreading article, or at least
skillfully implied: With all the net op companies worried about
growth and business, a price war probably isn't out of the
question. I remember how pissed we were when ALU, apparently on its
deathbed, stole an ATT I think deal from INFN - essentially giving
the equipment away in trade for future business gains.
And I don't understand well the technical side of it, but IIRC,
that was the big 'hump' INFN had to get over - that they're here to
stay, as once you choose an equipment company as your supplier,
you're locked into their products. I don't know how InPhi's
'disruptor' tech fits into that, but I'm sure it's not good.
INFN is attractive below 15 I think. But besides everyone
awaiting comment on how InPhi will affect their DCI box business, I
can't recall the last time (aside from analyst's comments) I read
an article that said demand is bullish right now, as opposed to in
the long run, the secular trend trumps all. Perhaps the
long-honored principle of the street having a short attention span,
as opposed to the patience a good number of us are sticking by.