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Re: INFN: Buy on
Over-reaction to Inphi, Says Deutsche
I read the Deutch story yesterday and hoped to God that this
analyst is right, and we'll see $26 again on Infinera. And
today's a good day for INFN and CIEN, so I can't gripe too much.
But I am quite underwater on those 2 stocks. I wish I knew more
about this technology from a software/hardware engineer's
prospective - It sounds like InPhi's tech will do 40 km, and
they're trying to stretch that to 80 km. (I do understand
that these are not real world benchmarks, but laboratory
conditions.) But if I had the knowledge, I'd know better whether
it's a product that can be improved on with further refinement, or
whether the parameters of what it can do only go so far (pun not
intended.)
And the things I've read of analysts coming out and defending
INFN, saying InPhi will only marginally be a problem is nice. I
just hope it's true. As I've done, I'll sit with both stocks and
hope for a return into the 20's. My amateur guess is that CIEN has
about 1 more disappointing quater before losing serious street
cred. I think INFN's short-term prospects ride pretty much on what
Fallon has to say, since if he doesn't address it in the CC, he
will surely be asked how disruptive InPhi's product is to
business.
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