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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

03/22/16 at 1:46 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#3514,`03/22/16
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: NOK in the run for VZ's GPON upgrade

lt cap,

Thanks for doing all that digging - I could find nothing on the usual financial news about this blow to INFN. I wish it was a rational market, since the -7% drop in INFN would mean that this new tech will significantly cripple them (and me, as I've got a substantial position), and CIEN might be up 4% because some people apparently thinks they may be/are the 'winners' when VZ announces its buildout vendors. 

However, of course it's not a rational market, so I don't see how one can really  'play' this, unless, as you have to some degree, made a judgment about just how bad this news is for INFN. I see no analyst comments on this - I'm sure they are to come, but I'd suppose since this was really a surprise, it'll take some time for them to digest it. The 4% rise in CIEN puzzles me - the articles you posted seem to say they do have a dog in that fight with the new tech, and it's by no means clear that a VZ buildout is a lock for CIEN as a supplier.

Please do post whatever else you find out - you're quite likely the only one here who knows where to look. If INFN's DCI boxes just became obsolete, I've got to wonder just how hard the hit is - new business would seem unlikely, and I'd guess that existing orders might be cancelled. Not a grand outlook. My memory is that INFN always has their quarterly CC near then end of a month. I haven't checked it, but I'd guess the end of April. Too long to hear Fallon's comments - perhaps they will put out an interim announcement to staunch the flow of blood, if they've got a legitimate way to reassure holders like me.

And, just by the way, I looked at what covered calls for April stk $15 would yield - pretty sucky - about 3% - not worth the risk in the face of the volatility right now.

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