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Re: ATVI
Jamok, you're up early! Those Yahoo Finance ests make no sense
to me. They say 2016 vs 2015 is $1.58 vs $1.36, and $5.05BN vs
$4.70BN. ATVI said in November King would be accretive to
non-GAAP revenue and eps by approx 30%, and those Yahoo Finance
numbers aren't 30% higher. King's revenue alone is multiple times
that $350M difference. It's almost like many of those Yahoo Finance
estimates haven't been updated since the acquisition.
ATVI's last guidance was $1.31 so 30% accretion should add 39c.
That alone takes it to $1.70, assuming no earnings growth in the
rest of the company. My theses from back then was if you assume
some growth for 2016 (now somewhat in doubt due to Destiny...) plus
the King earnings, that would put 2016 earnings near $2. As you
correctly note however, Kotick has a history of low-balling. I
doubt he would low-ball more than 2015 guidance plus 30%
though.
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