TTWO
Board Highlights
Message List Post Message Reply to
this Message

MSG # GO



Rap Sheet

Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

01/26/16 at 9:15 AM CST

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 0

0

0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#3379,`01/26/16
By breinejm

 

Re: ATVI

Jamok, you're up early! Those Yahoo Finance ests make no sense to me. They say 2016 vs 2015 is $1.58 vs $1.36, and $5.05BN vs $4.70BN.  ATVI said in November King would be accretive to non-GAAP revenue and eps by approx 30%, and those Yahoo Finance numbers aren't 30% higher. King's revenue alone is multiple times that $350M difference. It's almost like many of those Yahoo Finance estimates haven't been updated since the acquisition.

ATVI's last guidance was $1.31 so 30% accretion should add 39c. That alone takes it to $1.70, assuming no earnings growth in the rest of the company. My theses from back then was if you assume some growth for 2016 (now somewhat in doubt due to Destiny...) plus the King earnings, that would put 2016 earnings near $2. As you correctly note however, Kotick has a history of low-balling. I doubt he would low-ball more than 2015 guidance plus 30% though.

Copyright 2014 All Rights Reserved; Patent Pending