The more I think about the NOK investment, the more I
realize it is a horizon that involves two phases, both likely to be
very lucrative.
The first phase is all about the merger of both companies
which will yield over the next three years a combination of cost
reductions and higher overall revenue for the combined
entity. I believe this first phase has the potential to raise
the share price into the $13 to $14 area by late 2017 or early
2018.
The second phase is the world wide deployment of 5G.
This next phase will start to play out around 2019 and promises to
be a 4 to 5 year cycle. I believe this deployment will be
huge from a revenue point of view. The spoils will be divided
among the three top players: Nokia, Huawei and Ericson.
I believe that Nokia has a very decent chance to grab significant
market share. Regardless, with 5G rolling out around the
world and only three companies enjoying this huge revenue stream it
will be enough to lift the entire sector.
The company then will not only be lean and cost reduced
but also with a really strong balance sheet. This phase will
allow additional growth, one that could be high. I would not
be surprised if the stock reaches into the high teens by
2021-2022.