Jamok,

 

Re Fisher:

I certainly agree that it is too soon to fully assess what the Fed has done to get this country (and the global economy) from the brink of a depression and to re-inflate asset prices.

 

However, for the sake of doing an early assessment exercise:

1.- Avoiding an outright depression – so far so good, I could argue this is unlikely in the next several years.

2.- Re-Inflating asset prices – so far so good, but from where I sit, the market may be a bit pricey, not overly but it needs a decent 10% to 18% pull back.  Housing Market is recovering but lending is not available to all who would like to buy a house, it probably will take a few more years to fully normalize.  I also think that the Fed stayed on an easing mode longer than it should have and has had the effect of widening the ongoing wealth divide.  While I was a direct beneficiary of the Fed policies, I too have trouble seeing so many people still struggling mightily.

 

3.- Normalizing Inflation – Not there yet.  The ongoing commodity crash is troubling because there is a lot of over-capacity, we are in the process of very heavy CapEx contraction which will likely overshoot and create the opposite.   When China was humming and over building, it had the effect of encouraging those in the commodity complex to expand capacity much beyond where it would be needed when the inevitable slow down arrived.  Boom and Bust in this sector is the norm I suppose.  With the dollar strong, it also keeps inflation low since we import so much from abroad.