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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

12/16/15 at 9:48 AM CST

 

 

READ: 3

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Sentiment:

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Reply to:

MSG`#3195,`12/16/15
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: Star Wars discounting

I agree that margin expansion may continue since full game downloads will continue to rise. GameStop says total full game downloads are about 20% of sales. Some analyst estimates it may be higher, especially on Xbox One. I think it's probably around 20%-25%. I'm saying I think that will be organic expansion with the market, and the pace of their recent margin expansion may not be sustainable. That was aided in part by cutting their product catalog of likely mediocre sellers, coming out with $70 Deluxe editions that didn't used to exist a few years ago, company wide cost cutting, etc. They can't do those things again. It's also worth considering that GameStop weakened by loss of used sales is good news for the publishers, but if/when GameStop closes hundreds of stores, that should really be considered bad news for the publishers. In the ideal scenario, GameStop (the business I mean, not talking about the stock price) is weak, but not too weak.

The $67 range has been good for a bounce multiple times recently. It's gone to $66-67, and a couple of times lower than that in August, then rebounded to $70 or higher about 6 times lately. The 200sma is now around $66 so that trend is likely to continue with the next sell-off.

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