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Re: Star Wars
discounting
I agree that margin expansion may continue since full game
downloads will continue to rise. GameStop says total full game
downloads are about 20% of sales. Some analyst estimates it may be
higher, especially on Xbox One. I think it's probably around
20%-25%. I'm saying I think that will be organic expansion with the
market, and the pace of their recent margin expansion may not be
sustainable. That was aided in part by cutting their product
catalog of likely mediocre sellers, coming out with $70 Deluxe
editions that didn't used to exist a few years ago, company wide
cost cutting, etc. They can't do those things again. It's also
worth considering that GameStop weakened by loss of used sales is
good news for the publishers, but if/when GameStop closes hundreds
of stores, that should really be considered bad news for the
publishers. In the ideal scenario, GameStop (the business I mean,
not talking about the stock price) is weak, but not too weak.
The $67 range has been good for a bounce multiple times
recently. It's gone to $66-67, and a couple of times lower than
that in August, then rebounded to $70 or higher about 6 times
lately. The 200sma is now around $66 so that trend is likely to
continue with the next sell-off.
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