Jamok,

We have many divergences in the our economy, and then one could layer divergences in how the Feds around the world are acting. 

Corporations had been growing revenues for the past several years, but have had issues growing them this year, a lot of cross winds.  Two things corporations have been highly reluctant to do is increase CapEx significantly, increase hiring in a significant fashion, this has led to persistently low productivity.  This too is affecting sluggish revenue growth, and has kept wages under pressure.

Consumers have also been reluctant to spend too much, this is of course a good sign for the long term but keeps pressure on corporate revenue.

With commodities under pressure, one can safely say that it is the result of a slowing global economy, yet, it should portends positive things for consumers in general, but specially so for consumers with decent household incomes.

So where does the economy go here and abroad????

My take is that this is a "Profit Recession" more than a standard recession.  With interest rates starting what should prove to be a slow but long rate hike increase period, that too is likely to keep pressure on markets (a psychological impact more than a real one), but I am unsure/don’t think this evolves into the standard recession, which if it did and as we all know would bring with it lots of job losses, higher government deficits, and additional pressure on commodities and dare I say, lower inflation? 

 Counter balancing these negative winds, is the fact that around the globe, we have Feds supporting markets (China, Japan and Europe), and one can argue that the US Fed is only midly affecting the cost of money as it lifts rates from zero.  In short, the biggest economies of the globe are for all intents and purposes in easy mode.

 

This leads me to "assume/believe “that any slowdown should be shallow and mild.  Then again, I am typically on the wrong side of where economic activity goes.