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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

11/19/15 at 12:29 PM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - CIEN options

I think I can answer my own question now - CIEN today announceed an earnings CC date of 12/10. Weekly $24.50 calls rise at a fairly puny rate, until the expy Dec. 4th - with a premium of ~.48 cents. That rises sharply, comparatively sepaking to ~$.87 for the same Dec. 11th options. Double your money is an interesting proposition. I recall ALU having some soft rev figures in the last CC - assured the analysts that it was not a slowdown in sales, just moving out some revs from that quarter to this one from ATT. My guess is the game that they need to have been clearly telling the truth. If not, I'm sure they could finy any number of ways to fudge the numbers, but it'd be a pretty see-through trick, I'd expect. My personal belief is that they'll at least meet expectations, which I think ought to support the stock here.  I am aware of lt cap's warning that there will be a slowdown in 2016 - can't quite recall whether that was industry wide and global, or an ALU issue with China in particular. In any case, it's not 2016 yet. And I hope the Fed doesn't get around to manipulating the market again until after Dec. 11th.

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