Jester,

You've been writing about the 'shrinkage' from estimates to reality for a long time.  Some things never change. It begs the question, "Why aren't these economists/predictors ever held accountable? That's a funny deal, if I think about it - e.g., Elaine Garzarelli is famous for having predicted the 1989 (87?) crash, and won a ton of kudos and respect for it. (She later began her own fund and it crashed miserably.) When someone gets it right, it seems that everyone is aware of it. When they get it wrong, it's forgotten and doesn't make a ripple. (Can you name the economists who made the predictions about gdp growth? I can't.)

There's a very fine PBS documentary (I *think* it is probably part of the 'Frontline' series.) called 'The Retirement Gamble', still viewable at pbs.org, that looks into the financial advisor industry. Not much that folks on this board don't know (except, perhaps, that in 2010 there was a bill before congress, in reaction to the 2008 meltdown, that simply said a financial advisor must put his client's interests above his own. It was killed by both dems and republicans overwhelmingly.), but it's fun to watch some of the interviewees squirm when asked whether they adhere to that principle or not. Worth watching.