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Re: Curious and
Curiouser
lt cap,
Thanks for the INFN/CIEN sector take - I would not have known
that the INFN CTO stopped selling in April, which equates for
practical purposes to an insider buying, which is always a good
sign. I do believe you're right, that there will be a flood that
washes out the market pretty well (seems to have started up today,
in fact - TTWO down 4 1/2% which must mean the End is Near - except
EA is also down the same amt.) And hopefully, after the draw
down, the strong names will rally back in time. Unless this is the
'big one', when all chickens come home to roost, and facts such as
our $17 trillion debt start to become something other than abstract
concepts. It's an interesting idea to consider that in what might
come next is that there is no place to 'hide' - strong dollar hurts
our earnings, the fundamentals of a real recovery are built on
sand, as housing stalls and commodities continue to have slack
demand, China and other emerging markets become a drag rather than
a catalyst for the market, yada yada. (KBH down 7%+ just today
alone - wow.) I look at stocks like POT which crested around 35 and
it's now 20 on the way down, and the dividend is bloated, as is
common with so many of the commodity dividends, to more then 7%.
Same with KRO (makes Titanium dioxide), with a dividend ballooned
to 10% and price scraping new lows, on and on. It's almost tempting
to take a flyer for some of these stocks on the dividend, but the
main pattern seems to be that commodity companies have either
slashed dividends to shore up their balanced sheets, or are
seriously contemplating doing so (even the 'safe' ones, such as big
integrated oil co's.)
Probably best to hunker down for a while and hold the strongest
names.
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