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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

09/28/15 at 12:23 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2964,`09/28/15
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: Curious and Curiouser

lt cap,

Thanks for the INFN/CIEN sector take - I would not have known that the INFN CTO stopped selling in April, which equates for practical purposes to an insider buying, which is always a good sign. I do believe you're right, that there will be a flood that washes out the market pretty well (seems to have started up today, in fact - TTWO down 4 1/2% which must mean the End is Near - except EA is also down the same amt.)  And hopefully, after the draw down, the strong names will rally back in time. Unless this is the 'big one', when all chickens come home to roost, and facts such as our $17 trillion debt start to become something other than abstract concepts. It's an interesting idea to consider that in what might come next is that there is no place to 'hide' - strong dollar hurts our earnings, the fundamentals of a real recovery are built on sand, as housing stalls and commodities continue to have slack demand, China and other emerging markets become a drag rather than a catalyst for the market, yada yada. (KBH down 7%+ just today alone - wow.) I look at stocks like POT which crested around 35 and it's now 20 on the way down, and the dividend is bloated, as is common with so many of the commodity dividends, to more then 7%. Same with KRO (makes Titanium dioxide), with a dividend ballooned to 10% and price scraping new lows, on and on. It's almost tempting to take a flyer for some of these stocks on the dividend, but the main pattern seems to be that commodity companies have either slashed dividends to shore up their balanced sheets, or are seriously contemplating doing so (even the 'safe' ones, such as big integrated oil co's.) 

Probably best to hunker down for a while and hold the strongest names. 

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