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Curious and
Curiouser
It's puzzling to me as to why CIEN and INFN continue to show
significant weakness over the past several weeks. ALU is actually
making small gains in contrast. I understand lt cap's view that
INFN is fully valued, but that was when the stock was around 23-24.
CIEN had a good enough CC for the stock to rally to 25 and
the avg. PT was/is $27.50. Given the inevitable secular growth in
the sector, I find it hard to find a reason for the weakness. I'll
hold, wait, and sell some calls into a decent rebound. But just
can't find a reason for this - they're not CAT (nor VW) so what's
the problem?
I understand that Yellin's comments are all about anticipation
of what the Fed will do and when. But on the surface, it seems to
be a 'play' with 'SYellin cast as the 'Red Queen'. Last week, China
was cited as a worry, and a reason not to raise rates. So the
market treated it as it had just been discovered that China's
slowdown is a problem. Today, she said that China was not a
concern, and would not be a factor in the fed's decision, and for
all practical purposes there will be a rate hike in Dec. and then
gradual hikes from there. Yellin says China is a worry - suddenly
that's 'real'. She says it's not a worry, suddenly that's 'real'.
It is as though the market believes there is some secret info the
Fed has on the state of economies, and it becomes real when spoken.
Words are just what Yellin means them to be, no more. no less. And
actually, being less unkind, one can see today's comments as a
clarification of what she said after the FOMC meeting, which just
puzzled some people as to WTH she actually meant, and uncertainty
leads to turmoil in the market.
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