lt cap,

I agree with your assessment, given my best take (well, let's call it plain - a guess) on where things are and are headed. Strong dollar is a problem, and will be a bigger problem going forward, it looks like, given that Europe is still at the start of a QE plan, and China, along with emerging markets that mainly depend on commodity prices for their subsistence, look to keep slowing. The strong dollar should continue to worry earnings, I'd think. 

And while one can find data to support any position, the 'Jester effect' seems to be in full swing, some of it in key areas: i.e., Forcasts are either not meeting expectations, or are being revised downward from more sunny projections. China's growth, which was expected to slow to 7.2% has just been revised to the high 6's. As I've said before, key industries that reflect basic sources of growth - e.g., mining, commodities - continue to take a thrasing. And it's not just oil - I looked at FCX and copper certainly isn't in demand as the 52 week range is ~$33 down to ~$9 or so. Home building, which I think we've agreed has to turn robust to support a real recovery, isn't fairing well, as names like KBH continue to stagnate, at best. You pegged computers - A month or so ago I read an article with predictions that the 2 year decline in pc demand should end and show slight positive results. Today, another indicator of pc growth was revised downward from ~3.3% to 7,.x%. Not a pretty picture. Phone growth worldwide was projected to be pretty anemic as well. (You called the pc slowdown quite well some time ago, and it has stayed my hand from wading into INTC again at this price - at $25, I'm a lot more interested. On the very downside, their die shrink is taking a lot longer, giving up a crucial lead advantage to competitors. On the upside, they announced that  a joint venture with Micron has yielded a replacement for....was it RAM or solid state drives?....that produced a product a zillion times faster than current speeds. (It would be a competitor to NRAM, which you and I spoke about previously - I havn't follow NRAM as I would like to have. Intel's R and D to the rescue again - that being their strongest suit is what keeps me interested in them, along with a nice dividend.)

But...we are the prettiest horse at the glue factory. (Well, US factory data slowed to the lowest in 2 years today.) It'll be interesting to see what data rules - I think at the moment there's enough foreign $ willing to support this market in light of the 'prettiest horse' theory. But...I'm curious about what happened to the fact that we destroyed the middle class as a result of Fed policy? Did we assume that consumption would just move overseas, and we didn't need such domestic consumption? If China slows, and we can't dump products in their market, what then? Instead of iphones for Chinese, do we switch to making stilts for pygmies in southwest Africa? (Or maybe Nike's with a 'heel lift' feature?) 

So, I've probably not shed a lot of light on what I think happens next. Your thesis that we get a nasty correction and resume from their is supportable I think.

On a side note, I'd think that every time Nokia removes another barrier to merger, the stock will jump accordingly. I wish it weren't so. Low 3's not that long ago was a real buying opp.