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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

09/21/15 at 4:38 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 5

RPLY: 0

0

0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2935,`09/17/15
By Jester Debunker

 

Re: Jester says: The Fed hike that will never come

I am still not confident that the actions or lack thereof of the Fed really matter today.  On the one hand, I know that reversing years of zero rates to increasing rates is psychologically tough for markets to digest given that the dollar will innevitably rise further against the currencies of weak economies.  On the other hand, I also know that the Fed will do rate increases very gradually until inflation forces their hand which should have a gradual effect on the economy, I also am in the camp that believes that there is currently a rate ceiling due to the current low economic growth and persistently low inflation (again, due to very poor growth rates around the globe), this ceiling is likely to cap rates (Fed rate not treasuries) at somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 to 3% in the mid term (3 to 5 years).  Given this, I believe this is just the normal adjustment period, but one that would pass quickly, only caveat would be if China has a true economic crash, then all bets are off.

 

That said, IMO markets are still biased on the downside, rallies are on very poor volume and drops are not met with buying.  From where I stand, the Fed inaction is not what is driving the market now, it is more of a macro problem and the markets are simply just looking for further drops.  Prices just need to be more attractive before buyers come in force.

 

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