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Re: Jester says: The Fed hike
that will never come
I am still not confident that the actions or lack thereof
of the Fed really matter today. On the one hand, I know that
reversing years of zero rates to increasing rates is
psychologically tough for markets to digest given that the dollar
will innevitably rise further against the currencies of weak
economies. On the other hand, I also know that the Fed will
do rate increases very gradually until inflation forces their hand
which should have a gradual effect on the economy, I also am in the
camp that believes that there is currently a rate ceiling due to
the current low economic growth and persistently low inflation
(again, due to very poor growth rates around the globe), this
ceiling is likely to cap rates (Fed rate not treasuries) at
somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 to 3% in the mid term (3 to 5
years). Given this, I believe this is just the normal
adjustment period, but one that would pass quickly, only caveat
would be if China has a true economic crash, then all bets are
off.
That said, IMO markets are still biased on the downside,
rallies are on very poor volume and drops are not met with
buying. From where I stand, the Fed inaction is not what is
driving the market now, it is more of a macro problem and the
markets are simply just looking for further drops. Prices
just need to be more attractive before buyers come in
force.
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