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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

09/14/15 at 8:54 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 3

RPLY: 1

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2915,`09/14/15
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: Re Amazon recent run and its valuation

At some point, probably. Could be six months from now when that starts, or five years. Nobody can predict. However it goes, their status as a one of its kind distruptor will always give it a higher valuation premium than average. There are probably assumptions too in how many years it takes to get to margins that produce those earnings. To forecast the same earnings, all analysts need to do is push out a few more years of revenue growth with lower margins while citing "continued and better than expected progress on margins" to keep supporting the stock.

I have no position in AMZN. When I do, I'm looking for a quick short. I was just making the point that it's risky while the up-trend and narrative are still both intact. I mentioned NFLX otoh which is also very richly valued but is starting to look weaker, both technically and in the narrative (I see more and more stories highlighting that they do in fact have competition).

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