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Re: Re Amazon recent run and
its valuation
At some point, probably. Could be six months from now when that
starts, or five years. Nobody can predict. However it goes, their
status as a one of its kind distruptor will always give it a higher
valuation premium than average. There are probably assumptions too
in how many years it takes to get to margins that produce those
earnings. To forecast the same earnings, all analysts need to do is
push out a few more years of revenue growth with lower margins
while citing "continued and better than expected progress on
margins" to keep supporting the stock.
I have no position in AMZN. When I do, I'm looking for a quick
short. I was just making the point that it's risky while the
up-trend and narrative are still both intact. I mentioned NFLX otoh
which is also very richly valued but is starting to look weaker,
both technically and in the narrative (I see more and more stories
highlighting that they do in fact have competition).
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