OT - Jon, per the PM I sent you: I bought 1k CIEN @ 22.85, and
will decide how much and when to option them out. I may take the
long run - i.e. Sept. 11 stk 23.50, as the return is a pretty good
deal, %wise. A smart bird pointed me towards looking 1-3 weeks out,
as the odds become better, which may be a better strategy in terms
of risk/reward/time exposure. The fact that I like the sector, and
CIEN seems poised to be among the 'winners' encourages me. The fact
that they've been in a sharp ST downward trend is not so grand. But
I'm treating it a bit like ALU - long term patience, as I have and
want a non-trading position as well.
Speaking of which, I am somewhat sore tempted to add to ALU here
around $3.55, although I keep remembering that dip into the 3.30's
and 3.40's and wonder if that might not be repeated. Regardless, I
would like to increase my stake opportunistically. I do wonder
whether the market is using the 'crisis of the day' (Greece, then
yuan, probably Ukraine up next - or maybe Iran deal falls apart) as
an excuse to go lower, which might be where it 'wants' to head.
Perhaps it is not of note, but a month or so ago S'Yellen made a
comment about the market 'being fully valued'. I haven't heard a
comment like that from the Fed chair since the late 1990's (I
think), when Greenspan cautioned against 'irrational exuberance'.
just a bit before the market crashed. Given that the Fed chair's
every words are scrutinized under a microscope, I wonder why she
would say such a thing? OTOH, she's clearly said she's ready to do
what's necessary to keep this market afloat.
Speaking of Greenspan - I know a lot of folks don't like him,
and blame him for his non-regulatory stance that led to the 2008
chicanery. I saw some video clips of an interview with him
yesterday on Bloomberg - probably still viewable on their website.
He took possession of some of his misjudgments. He also commented
on what he sees as some serious dangers in the market, starting
with a bond bubble, and that such troubles are inevitable and
unavoidable. Regardless of his actions as Fed chair, I've always
thought he was a very smart guy and worth listening to.