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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

08/11/15 at 2:37 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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Reply to:

MSG`#2856,`08/11/15
By breinejm

 

Re: OT - CIEN option

OT - Jon, per the PM I sent you: I bought 1k CIEN @ 22.85, and will decide how much and when to option them out. I may take the long run - i.e. Sept. 11 stk 23.50, as the return is a pretty good deal, %wise. A smart bird pointed me towards looking 1-3 weeks out, as the odds become better, which may be a better strategy in terms of risk/reward/time exposure. The fact that I like the sector, and CIEN seems poised to be among the 'winners' encourages me. The fact that they've been in a sharp ST downward trend is not so grand. But I'm treating it a bit like ALU - long term patience, as I have and want a non-trading position as well.

Speaking of which, I am somewhat sore tempted to add to ALU here around $3.55, although I keep remembering that dip into the 3.30's and 3.40's and wonder if that might not be repeated. Regardless, I would like to increase my stake opportunistically. I do wonder whether the market is using the 'crisis of the day' (Greece, then yuan, probably Ukraine up next - or maybe Iran deal falls apart) as an excuse to go lower, which might be where it 'wants' to head. Perhaps it is not of note, but a month or so ago S'Yellen made a comment about the market 'being fully valued'. I haven't heard a comment like that from the Fed chair since the late 1990's (I think), when Greenspan cautioned against 'irrational exuberance'. just a bit before the market crashed. Given that the Fed chair's every words are scrutinized under a microscope, I wonder why she would say such a thing? OTOH, she's clearly said she's ready to do what's necessary to keep this market afloat. 

Speaking of Greenspan - I know a lot of folks don't like him, and blame him for his non-regulatory stance that led to the 2008 chicanery. I saw some video clips of an interview with him yesterday on Bloomberg - probably still viewable on their website. He took possession of some of his misjudgments. He also commented on what he sees as some serious dangers in the market, starting with a bond bubble, and that such troubles are inevitable and unavoidable. Regardless of his actions as Fed chair, I've always thought he was a very smart guy and worth listening to.

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