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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

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Date:

08/01/15 at 1:16 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2839,`07/30/15
By breinejm

 

Re: ALU-NOK

Agree it is a good summary.  I specially agree with the suggestion that Ericson will have its hands full once this merger is completed. NOK/ALU are indeed working together to control costs, are more "diligent and selective" when it comes to bidding on projects (i.e. far more disciplined execution than in the past), and from where I sit, they are implicitly or explicitly executing as a single entity.  

The fact that Michel Combes has announced that he is stepping down in September, makes me think this thing will close far sooner than originally believed, I think end of February is a decent guess, if not sooner.  I was very pleased with the results. That said, a lot of work remains to be done, specially extracting the so called "synergies", that all lies ahead once the merger is final.

Someone I know who is also in this stock (ALU) texted me while I was away, specifically saying that he felt underwhelmed about the "subdued" market reaction to the earnings.  I frankly was not surprised or underwhelmed at all, especially because I do know that this market is always in an Instant Gratification Mode, if you recall, INFN was making progress all along I was touting it, yet the market could not give a crap.  Well, look at where it is now.  Which begs the question:  Why did INFN go down to the mid 4s just two years ago if the company was sitting on such explosive technology????  Simple, the earnings had not yet materialized.  This is precisely what I look for in investments, a market that is ignoring great opportunities..

So, If the NOK/ALU merger delivers on half its promise, this thing will start shooting up from the time the merger is complete and rise to "overvalued" levels over the next 3.5 years.

IMO, given all the synergies that can be had, the combined company is in for an extended business cycle where growth will be the central theme.

 

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