Agree it is a good summary. I specially agree with
the suggestion that Ericson will have its hands full once this
merger is completed. NOK/ALU are indeed working together to control
costs, are more "diligent and selective" when it comes to bidding
on projects (i.e. far more disciplined execution than in the past),
and from where I sit, they are implicitly or explicitly executing
as a single entity.
The fact that Michel Combes has announced that he is
stepping down in September, makes me think this thing will close
far sooner than originally believed, I think end of February is a
decent guess, if not sooner. I was very pleased with the
results. That said, a lot of work remains to be done, specially
extracting the so called "synergies", that all lies ahead once the
merger is final.
Someone I know who is also in this stock (ALU) texted me
while I was away, specifically saying that he felt underwhelmed
about the "subdued" market reaction to the
earnings. I frankly was not surprised or underwhelmed at all,
especially because I do know that this market is always in an
Instant Gratification Mode, if you recall, INFN was making progress
all along I was touting it, yet the market could not give a crap.
Well, look at where it is now. Which begs the question:
Why did INFN go down to the mid 4s just two years ago if the
company was sitting on such explosive technology???? Simple,
the earnings had not yet materialized. This is precisely what
I look for in investments, a market that is ignoring great
opportunities..
So, If the NOK/ALU merger delivers on half its promise,
this thing will start shooting up from the time the merger is
complete and rise to "overvalued" levels over the next 3.5
years.
IMO, given all the synergies that can be had, the combined
company is in for an extended business cycle where growth will be
the central theme.