lt cap,
Haven't read the Barron's article you cited yet. I agree that
INTC is at a more critical point than it has been for....well, for
at least as far as I can remember (okay, let's peg it to AMD's
'beat', being the first to a 1ghz cpu - which Intel quashed with
illegal coercive trade practices, and AMD sued 5 years too late.)
That die shrink and cpu delay is really the thing that gives me
pause not to buy in here - yet. They do have the financial
resources to undercut competition and 'bleed' longer than any of
the competing foundries. Altho no one, including analysts are that
fond of profits going south. Their quarter was actually not bad -
beat in some areas, guided 3rd q to the high end of its range. But
yes, that die shrink and the fact that so far, their large capex
expenditures to become a significant player in other niches doesn't
show signs of really bearing good fruit. And the long term
prospects certainly trump whatever short term good news there may
be.(But jeez, horribly unfortunately 'tied' to MSFT as a 'partner'
- like having a quadraplegic running a leg in a relay race for
you.)
Still, I *think* their ability to solve big crises is better
than is thought. And I would jump back in here - but that die
shrink lead is about as critical as you cite. I'd sure think about
it in mid-20's if the macro isn't what causes the drop, as I don't
see their dividend suffering.
On AMD, I'm still a skeptic, altho for some odd reason I never
sold my 1k shares @$3.70 - I don't think they can really compete,
and will follow that historic trend. I don't know about the cpus
but they're still playing catchup with Nvidia in the gpu arena and
that 'lower price for not-quite-as good' cards has never blossomed
for them. I said in a previous post that their new 3XX line of gpus
are mostly the same cruddy 32nm die, same cards rebranded, with
some clock and memory speed tweaks, mostly. I know these cards are
supposed to 'hold the fort' while they ready the nextgen, but
at trusted sites like Tom's Hardware, the AMD chip's that used to
win 'best in class' have mostly capitulated to Nvidia's offerings.
Even at $1.79, I think AMD is like having Helen Keller play
videogames for your team in an online 'deathmatch' competition. I'm
sorry- I don't think I've left any politically correct rules
unbroken.