<p>Jester,</p> <p>You already know this, but your question "how does one get to be an economist?" while on the surface seems to be a question of competence, is of course a comment on how 'politicized' such professions are, even when supposedly set-up to be impartial and free of political considerations. You've pointed out, year after year after year, every time those rosy predictions get 'downsized', and yesterday's growth get projected into the future to be tomorrow's growth. Companies like EA, complicit with analysts, can play the funny-money game with most people never seeing it as an endless game of 3 card monte. GDP numbers are much harder to 'massage' so the economists are naturally more vulnerable. (Maybe GDP should be measured in something approximating non-GAAP and GAAP measures? :-)</p> <p> It does lead me to a question that is sincere - I'm quite interested, if you have the inclination, to get your view on whether the overall recovery we're supposed to be in is real? Or do you think some parts are, and others aren't? Or do you think this all ends very badly with chickens coming home to roost eventually? We've been 'traveling companions' for so long, you know I have great respect for your opinion. If you feel like it, tell me - PM is fine, too, my friend.</p>