GTA sales are incredible. No doubt about it. But the trend is
that each new GTA has taken longer and longer to create. I just
read one analyst talking about 2016 for the next GTA. What? Not
gonna happen. At earliest, it will be 2018, and based on previous
trends it will be 2020. If that sounds crazy, it shouldn't if you
note how long it took to make GTAV. The reason it's such an amazing
game is what it takes to create it, and consumer expectations keep
rising.
Still, the valuation of the company is low. If we assume 5
years, then the way I value TTWO is roughly like this...
2013 $2.75 (when you account for tax); 2014 $1.75; 2015 $1; 2016
$2 (RDR); 2017 $1; 2018 $3 (GTA) ~~~~ averages out to
$1.92
at impatient market valuation (10x EM), it's a $28 stock, but at
ATVI valuation (20x EM) it's a $47 stock
Even the risk of GTA taking another couple years doesn't knock
that valuation all that far. I get about $25 and $40. The market
doesn't care to wait so long. That's why I think the bigger
publishers need to either buy them out or it's gonna be a loooong
wait.