I'm considering selling TTWO going into earnings. I don't see how analysts are coming up with $1.29 next year. Red Dead is definitely not making the FY and Z is not shy about shocking the market with guidance. But the stock is already down 20% this q so I'm hesitant about getting rid of a long term position (and I'm kicking myself for not selling in the 30's).  Last year at this time, this is what happened:

• Stock was UP about 7% relative to the market in the Q
• .21 versus .09 BEAT
• Q1 and FY guidance miss: Q1 - (.30) v (.10) MISS; FY - .93 v. 1.08 MISS
• Result: 6% drop in share price (which was erased in subsequent months)

It's always the same with TTWO. They beat and guide down, quarter after quarter. Look at last year's guidance of .93. At this point after only three quarters, they've already made $1.50, so they'll probably double their guidance from last year. The eps numbers are impressive because they're based on the higher share count. So from a valuation standpoint, the shares are cheap if you assume GTA will do this kind of performance again (it's incredible how much earnings this latest GTA has produced, even after Rockstar's enormous cut).  Still, management has established a pattern of being very conservative with guidance, so I'm alarmed by analysts at $1.29 for the next FY. Today:

• Stock is down 20% relative to market in the Q
• Average beat last 4 q's is .18 so lets say they BEAT by .18
• Q1 and FY analysts are high so let's say they guide for weak Q1 and $1.00 FY
• Result? What do you think?

If results are how I see it, I think the stock reaction could go both ways