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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

04/30/15 at 6:36 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 6

RPLY: 1

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - With the drop in NOK, the deal premium is now gone

<p>Other major ALU investors are quite likely to revolt and ask for better terms.  I sense a wave of pressure will mount and NOK may have to offer a higher ratio than 0.55 shares of NOK for each of ALU, or walk away from the deal.  I think NOK's only choice will be to sweeten it.  I would guess the ratio could be 0.65 just to bring the premium back to the level when the deal was announced.

 

As I am thinking through this, I am wondering if my stance to wait longer is the best way to play this. If NOK is pressured and a higher bid is done, ALU shares should jump.  However, if ALU's own earnings are also weak, then the complaints about the deal would also die down.  I may just dip the toe in the water and buy a few more ALY shares today, not yet sure.  Gotta let this news brew a bit more.

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