|
OT - Carrier spending set to
improve and with it a new Routing cycle
OT - This should help all in sector, specially ALU since its
Switching and Rounting is gaining share. This article below
is for a JNPR upgrade but I believe it should apply to ALU as
well. Juniper Jumps 9%: RBC Ups to Buy on
Diversification; Routing Cycle Coming Around By Tiernan
RayShares of networker Juniper Networks (JNPR) are up $2.09, or
almost 9%, at $26.09, after the company yesterday afternoon beat Q1
expectations and forecast this quarter higher as well.The stock has
gotten at least one upgrade this morning, from RBC Capital’s
Mark Sue, who raised his rating to Outperform from Sector Perform,
and raised his price target to $29 from $22, writing that
“the period of negative earnings revisions are now behind
us,” and that there is “stabilization in the top-
line” and “encouraging early signs of improving telco
spend.”Juniper’s been able to diversify away from the
weak telco market, he writes:Telco capex remains back-end load, yet
diversification to data centers and cable is helping stabilize the
business. Cloud providers are becoming meaningful of JNPR.
Regionally despite FX, EMA/APAC seem to be firming as well.
Deferred revenues (+9% QoQ) and book-to-bill (>1.0x) were also
encouraging. Beyond the back-half, we expect new product cycles in
routing, switching and security to begin contributing to growth.And
the routing “cycle” is finally coming around:Routing
(47% of sales, higher margin) is seeing improvements in demand at
US carriers, cable and cloud providers, while Europe demand is
returning, traction in APAC is improving and enterprise routing
demand is solid as well, particularly in govt. Routing’s a
cyclical business and we believe the routing product cycle is now
turning; likely bottomed in 4Q14. Juniper expects routing revenues
to grow 3-5% YoY over the next few years. It remains to be seen how
share gains play out as Cisco intensifies vs. Juniper’s PTX
and NorthStar.One obvious question is what happens with the
company’s partnership with Nokia (NOK), which just last week
said it will buy Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), which has its own IP routing
and switching assets.Sue is not overly concerned:The Nokia reseller
arrangement contributes $190M/yr (~10%) so strip it out and CY15
EPS of $1.65 may decline to $1.55. Yet the timing of deal close
(1H16) may provide some time for Juniper to refill the funnel.
We’re less concerned near term given relationships with other
equipment vendors, meaningful carrier relationships and a solid
installed base.
|
|