Star Wars Battlefront.

SWB1 released in 2004, no sku was in the top 10 for the year. SWB2 released in 2005, and the PS2 sku was #6 for the year, and no sku was in the top 10 for 2006. VGChartz has SWB1 at 5.36M lifetime, and SWB2 at 5.26M. Those include discounted sales of course. There's a lot of fan appreciation for the games too, which means hype from both casuals and hardcore for the upcoming game.

The movie will be huge, the hype will be huge. It should crush last years big holiday release Dragon Age Inquisition, although at lower margins. Before people get too carried away though:

a) No SP campaign. It has some kind of offline SP activity, probably kill some bots in this MP map, or challenges of some kind, but no story campaign. This will turn off some potential buyers.

forbes.com/si...paign/

b) There is already concern being voiced at potential value for money. The planet count is only 4, there are no space battles, no SP campaign, and DICE also admitted less destruction than in their Battlefield series.

c) No last gen skus, which is probably wise, but it will still shut out some potential buyers, especially at the more casual end of the spectrum.

d) Previous MP focused games have all disappointed: Brink, Titanfall, Evolve, all were criticized for value for money and saw sales fail to meet expectations.

I agree Human, there's definitely potential for hype to run amok. Analysts can start setting targets at whatever high number they want, and start raising FY ests from current $2.64 (even though everyone knew it would be holiday 2015, and that's before we learned no SP campaign), then apologize later for the froth if necessary. I think 6M-8M shipped in the FY is likely.