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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

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Date:

04/17/15 at 11:56 AM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2540,`04/17/15
By breinejm

 

Re: Given that Fitch and S&P;are decidedly positive on the NOK-ALU merger

The more I go about the positives on this merger the more I feel convinced this will lead to very decent gains.   The merger makes perfect sense because of these three simple things: 1- NOK brings the balance sheet2- ALU brings the technology (i.e. broader portfolio)3- ALU brings extended Geographic foot print (specially North America and China)  Combined, the new entity will be first in Wireless and remain a strong second in Switching and Wireless.  I too read that in China, ALU is actually already selling SDN technology (China Telecom if memeory Serves me right), great to see it already has a small foothold in such a huge market. Currently, NOK sports a Price to Sales multiple of 2, JNPR is at 2, CSCO at 3, Ericson at 1.59.  I would expect that NOK's P/S would be pulled down somewhat, but within the next 3 years, it should move back to a P/S ratio of 2.  The synergies are so favorable that the company once fully integrated should grow market share in both the Wireless and Switching and routing and also in the SDN market as it becomes a bigger slice of overall Networking market. At a multiple of 2, the company could eventually fetch a price per share of ~$15, at 1.5 it would be at ~$11 (my current PT).  I also have decided that my hold time for this investment will likely be 3+ years

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