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Re: Given that Fitch and
S&P;are decidedly positive on the NOK-ALU merger
The more I go about the positives on this merger the more I feel
convinced this will lead to very decent gains. The
merger makes perfect sense because of these three simple
things: 1- NOK brings the balance sheet2- ALU brings the
technology (i.e. broader portfolio)3- ALU brings extended
Geographic foot print (specially North America and
China) Combined, the new entity will be first in
Wireless and remain a strong second in Switching and
Wireless. I too read that in China, ALU is actually already
selling SDN technology (China Telecom if memeory Serves me right),
great to see it already has a small foothold in such a huge
market. Currently, NOK sports a Price to Sales multiple of 2,
JNPR is at 2, CSCO at 3, Ericson at 1.59. I would expect that
NOK's P/S would be pulled down somewhat, but within the next 3
years, it should move back to a P/S ratio of 2. The synergies
are so favorable that the company once fully integrated should grow
market share in both the Wireless and Switching and routing and
also in the SDN market as it becomes a bigger slice of overall
Networking market. At a multiple of 2, the company could
eventually fetch a price per share of ~$15, at 1.5 it would be at
~$11 (my current PT). I also have decided that my hold time
for this investment will likely be 3+ years
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