Jon, TTWO imo is all about the long expected RDR sequel, which they are surely working on. Maybe they are even working on a RDR remaster as an interim step. I think the 6 months leading up to RDR2 release will be good for the stock, likely taking it to the previous highs of $30-$32. Current analyst ests through March 2016 are $1.39, which means a forward 18x non-gaap, not subtracting (cash-debt) from the multiple, in a year of negative headlines from declining earning and revenue vs the year before. That isn't compelling. Throw RDR2 into the mix and suddenly we'll be looking at game hype, a cycle of raising estimates, a lower multiple, and probably a big move.

So when is RDR2 coming? At least 6-12 months after announcement, so if it's not announced by next month I think it's not this FY. They typically ignore E3 in June, and even if it were announced by next month it could still be delayed later to say May, which is always something to watch out for. Or maybe they produce a RDR remaster for this holiday season, which will be a solid seller I think, and easy money, but not a massive seller. I think the gaming community is already getting annoyed with the rather large number of remasters being done. If this year is a remaster then RDR2 may be holiday 2016 and not announced until early 2016.

What's the take away? It might be a good idea to sell at the money puts around $25, and then calls if you get put the stock, to take advantage of the volatility. That's until RDR2 is announced, then hold shares for the 6 months until it releases.