[Updated] LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC) waited one hour after the market closed to quietly release an earnings disappointment which they plan to discuss in the morning. Cogdell Spencer did them one better and waited three hours after the bell to release a more "cautious outlook." Health care real estate investment trusts and stocks have seen quite a battering along with everything else in the market. Here's an overview of a series of reported FFO earnings and guidance, and their related Price/Earnings comparisons:
Nationwide Health Properties Inc. (NHP) just reported full year earnings last week and are now trading at a P/E of 8.21. They did not provide guidance but a consensus of twelve analysts expect modest growth.
HCP, Inc. (HCP) missed earnings expectations, but actually provided guidance. They now trade at a forward P/E of 9.30.
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) provided guidance two weeks ago and now has a forward P/E of 9.30, which is identical to HCP. They also expect modest growth.
Cogdell Spencer (CSA) this evening also provided "cautious" forward guidance and is currently trading at a forward P/E of 5.26. They missed the expectation of six analysts by about a penny and last traded at $6.10 when the market closed. Analysts were already expecting flat to slightly negative growth which explains the lower P/E. One year ago they were trading at nearly $20. However, based on P/E they already seem to be discounted relative to peers, so it might be one to watch out for if it drops.
LTC Properties, Inc., which also reported this evening and missed the quarter by 11% based on recent non-payment of their rental income, is now trading at a P/E of 9.47. They did not provide guidance. If we were to drop the $1.95 expectation of four analysts by 11%, inline with the quarter's miss, we would be expecting $1.74, which would imply negative growth. At the low end P/E comparison of 6.56, it would be trading at $11.43. At the high end P/E of 9.3, it would be at $16.18. LTC last traded at $17.60.
Since LTC did not provide guidance, and a similar company with a positive growth analyst forecast trades at a P/E of 8.21, one might expect their $1.86 result to be at a new lower multiple, which could also give this one a substantial haircut. Among this group, CSA offers the highest dividend yield at current prices.
Even when reporting earnings late in the day, these companies won't be able to hide from the market tomorrow and beyond. At some point, however, these will hit a bottom and provide opportunity. The commercial real estate market however, still seems to have considerable risk, and these P/E's and yields are at least starting to reflect that risk.
